Markov Processes International tests whether endowment returns can reveal concentrated private-market exposure before holdings are disclosed. Adding SpaceX as a factor, the model flagged Harvard before its $2.2 billion stake became public and estimates FY26 contributions of 10.6 percentage points for UNC and 7.8 for Harvard and Stanford.
Before the Disclosure: Identifying SpaceX Exposure in Elite Endowments
Markov Processes International
Research
10 Pages
Key Takeaways
Returns reveal exposure: Harvard’s SpaceX position was flagged before disclosure; its later 13F showed a $2.2 billion stake, the endowment’s largest reported stock position.
SpaceX moves returns: A 3.8% estimated UNC exposure plus a roughly 280% FY26 SpaceX return implies about 10.6 percentage points of contribution.
Signals vary widely: Estimated FY26 SpaceX contributions reach 7.8 points for Harvard and Stanford, 6.2 for MIT, and 4.2 for Cornell.
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