A practitioner՚s guide to forecasting in unprecedented times

Deutsche Bank

Peter Hooper, Matthew Luzzetti

Research

64 Pages

Deutsche Bank Research Institute reviews macro forecasting through the lens of the Covid period and its aftermath. The authors walk through successive phases from collapse to recovery to inflation shock, asking why traditional models struggled when history offered few guides. Lessons center on combining data, judgment and scenario analysis when policy, behavior and shocks break usual patterns.

Date published: March 24, 2025

Key Takeaways

Regime aware thinking: Encourages forecasters to treat pandemics, war and policy shocks as distinct regimes rather than typical cycles.
Blend models judgment: Argues for combining formal models with narrative views, real time data and stress tests to navigate uncertainty.
Better tools design: Suggests building adaptable frameworks that highlight risks, scenario ranges and forecast humility instead of single point answers.
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