Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: September 2026 update

McKinsey & Company

Research

28 Pages

McKinsey Global Institute tracks how trade is being rewired across six major economies as AI demand, tariffs, and geopolitical disruptions reshape partners and products. US AI-related imports nearly doubled to $260 billion, while China’s intermediate-goods exports rose 27% and represented almost three-quarters of its export growth.

Key Takeaways

AI drives trade: US AI-related imports nearly doubled to $260 billion through May, while exports rose $29 billion, or 52%.
China supplies factories: Intermediate-goods exports rose 27% in H1, accounting for almost three-quarters of China’s total export growth.
ASEAN connects rivals: ASEAN imports from China rose 24% to $161 billion, while exports to the US climbed 18% to $108 billion.
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