Global Macro Trends: New Playbook Required

KKR

Henry McVey

Research

48 Pages

KKR explores how a shift from monetary to fiscal policy is reshaping global markets, pushing investors toward complexity and away from crowded trades. It argues value is being overlooked despite strong fundamentals, while activism and restructuring trends could unlock opportunities across regions and sectors.

Key Takeaways

Fiscal Regime Shift: Markets are moving from monetary to fiscal dominance, with fiscal stimulus now a primary driver of nominal GDP growth and asset allocation decisions across major economies.
Valuation Dispersion Opportunity: Momentum and Growth outperformed for 3 years, while Value lagged, creating a widening dispersion that KKR sees as a potential entry point for contrarian investors.
Corporate Complexity Premium: About 25% of Nikkei 400 firms have 100+ subsidiaries, highlighting restructuring potential as rising capital costs push global carve-outs and private equity opportunities.
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