Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023

Credit Suisse

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton

Research

54 Pages

Credit Suisse Research Institute distills a century plus of global market history to frame realistic expectations for returns and risk. The paper contrasts equities, bonds, bills, and inflation, then explores risk premia, factor investing, currencies, sectors, and country dispersion. It offers context for asset allocation, highlighting survivorship bias and the limits of extrapolating recent winners.

As of 12/31/22

Key Takeaways

Equity premium persists: Equities have rewarded patience, but outcomes vary widely across time and countries.
Bonds are cyclical: Real bond performance depends on inflation regimes and starting valuation conditions.
Diversification still matters: Spreading across geographies, sectors, and styles reduces reliance on any single driver.
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