Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2024 (GIRY)

UBS

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton

Research

57 Pages

The Yearbook provides a century-long perspective on global investment performance, offering rigorous data and analysis across asset classes and geographies. It identifies key historical trends and offers lessons for forward-looking portfolio construction, with emphasis on real returns, inflation effects, and the evolving risk/return landscape.

The charts below highlight the riskiness of bonds and how the market capitalizations of different countries have changed since 1900.

Key Takeaways

Long-term equity edge: Equities have delivered a real annual return of 5.1% globally since 1900, outpacing bonds (1.7%) and bills (0.3%), highlighting their long-term return premium.
Global diversification matters: The U.S. dominated past equity returns but accounted for only 15% of global GDP in 1900 and ~60% of equity market cap by 2023—underscoring the benefit of global exposure.
Inflation remains a risk: While recent inflation was transitory, history shows that persistent inflation has eroded real bond returns and requires careful portfolio resilience planning.
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