Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025 (GIRY)

UBS

Elroy Dimson, Dr. Mike Staunton, Paul Marsh

Research

22 Pages

UBS updated their annual GIRY, which highlights the evolution of global markets over the past 125 years.

Key Takeaways

Equities dominate over the long term: A $1 investment in U.S. equities in 1900 would have grown to $107,409 by 2024, showing the exceptional long-term power of equity compounding.
Government bonds offer modest real returns: Across 21 markets, government bonds delivered an average real return of about 0.9% annually—highlighting the importance of strategic asset allocation.
Industry leadership changes dramatically over time: In 1900, railroads represented 63% of the U.S. equity market. Today, tech, healthcare, and energy dominate—a reminder of the need to adapt to structural shifts.
Gold and commodities as hedges: These assets have positive correlations with inflation (e.g., gold at 0.34 since 1972), making them useful in inflation-sensitive portfolios—albeit with unique risks.
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