Guide to the Markets – U.S. 1Q 2021

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Research

71 Pages

J.P. Morgan Asset Management lays out a data-driven snapshot of the global economy and markets entering 2021, focusing on recovery dynamics, valuations, and policy support. The piece leans on the idea that massive fiscal and monetary stimulus could fuel a sharp rebound, even as near-term growth remains constrained.

Key Takeaways

Stimulus Driven Recovery Global fiscal support exceeded $12T, creating excess savings that could drive a mid-2021 consumption rebound.
Valuation Gap Widens Growth stocks traded at ~29.3x earnings versus 13.5x for value, highlighting one of the widest spreads in decades.
Earnings Rebound Expected S&P 500 EPS growth rebounded toward ~70% in 2021 after a -4.8% contraction in 2020.
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