Guide to the Markets: U.S. 4Q 2026

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

David Kelly

Research

68 Pages

David Kelly and the J.P. Morgan Asset Management team present the latest Guide to the Markets, a chart based look at US equities, the economy, fixed income, international markets, and alternatives. Topics include index concentration, earnings growth, and valuations, with the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio at 19.0x.

Key Takeaways

Concentrated index: The top 10 companies account for 40.6% of S&P 500 market capitalization and 36.1% of earnings.
Valuation measures: Shiller's CAPE stands at 40.9x versus a 28.9x 30 year average, while forward P/E is 19.0x versus 17.2x.
Earnings growth: Consensus calls for 31.6% S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026, versus a 7.6% average from 2001 to 2025.
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