Indian Summer?

Man Group

Henry Neville

Research

19 Pages

Man Group assesses India’s long-term potential, balancing its rapid demographic expansion, capex boom, and digitization progress against rich valuations and geopolitical risks. The report highlights India’s structural growth edge over China, but cautions that investors should expect cycles and drawdowns along the way.

Source: Man Group. As of the end of June, private clients’ equity beta was 1.5 for the top 10 holdings and 1.2 for the top 20 holdings.

Key Takeaways

Demographic engine: India adds ~11M working-age people annually, versus China’s projected decline of ~5M per year.
Capex surge: Government and private investment lifted fixed asset growth to +15% annually since 2021, double the prior decade.
Valuation premium: India trades at 24.6x P/E, implying ~150 bps annual underperformance versus global equities at current levels.
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