2026 Global Outlook: Pushing limits

BlackRock

Research

18 Pages

BlackRock says a challenge for investors in 2026 will be reconciling whether AI will generate revenues of the same order of magnitude as the huge capital spending plans.

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute with data from Crafts (2021), December 2025.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Bloomberg and Kenneth R. French, December 2025.

Key Takeaways

Micro is macro: The capital spending ambitions tied to the AI buildout are so large that the micro is macro. The overall revenues could justify the spend – yet it’s unclear how much will accrue to the tech companies driving the buildout.
Leveraging up: The AI builders are leveraging up: investment is front-loaded while revenues are back-loaded. Along with highly indebted governments, this creates a more levered financial system vulnerable to shocks like bond yield spikes.
Diversification mirage: With a few mega forces driving markets, allocations made under the guise of diversification could be big active bets.
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