KPMG Economics: Here comes the sun: Bring the sunscreen Annual economic outlook

KPMG

Diane Swonk

Research

8 Pages

KPMG US sets out a 2026 United States outlook where growth stabilizes after a long stretch of shocks and policy drama. The piece links tariff uncertainty, an historic government shutdown, immigration limits and an AI investment boom to a recovery that feels uneven on the ground. It also explains how labor shortages, childcare costs and persistent inflation shape the path for consumers, the Fed and bond markets.

Date published: December 11, 2025

Key Takeaways

Macro backdrop context: Describes an economy emerging from policy turmoil into moderate growth with lingering inflation and fragile consumer sentiment.
Policy and labor mix: Explains how tariffs, immigration curbs and demographic aging tighten labor supply and push certain wages higher.
AI and inequality: Frames the AI investment boom as a source of productivity gains that also concentrate income and wealth.
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