Macro Outlook 2026: Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices

Goldman Sachs

Jan Hatzius

Research

24 Pages

Goldman Sachs sets out a 2026 macro outlook featuring stronger than consensus global growth with subdued job creation and moderating inflation. The authors expect the United States to outperform as tariff headwinds fade, tax cuts arrive and financial conditions ease, while China’s export engine and selective fiscal support keep overall global activity resilient even as structural challenges linger.

Date published: December 18, 2025

Key Takeaways

Sturdy growth baseline: Global GDP near 2.8 % in 2026 with United States and China outperforming consensus expectations.
Jobs productivity tension: Faster productivity means solid output can coexist with softer hiring and a mildly rising unemployment rate.
Policy and markets: Falling core inflation and limited rate cuts create a friendly backdrop for equities but constrain bond upside.
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