Vanguard examines how a “new age of uncertainty” driven by trade tensions and policy risk could shape a slower global economy and more muted market returns. It argues U.S. growth may fall to around 1% while long-term equity returns compress, challenging expectations built on the post-crisis decade.
Vanguard Economic And Market Outlook For 2020: The New Age Of Uncertainty
Vanguard
Joseph Davis
Research
48 Pages
Key Takeaways
Slowing Global Growth: U.S. GDP is projected near 1%, with China slowing to 5.8% and developed markets clustering around 1.0%–1.2% growth, signaling a synchronized downshift.
Lower Return Regime: U.S. equities are expected to return just 3.5%–5.5% annually over 10 years, well below the 10%+ average seen post-2009.
Fixed Income Constraints: Global fixed income returns are forecast around 0.5%–1.5%, reflecting structurally lower rates and compressed credit spreads across markets.
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