Shattered Assumptions And The Energy Quandary

Gavekal

Louis-Vincent Gave

Research

14 Pages

Gavekal argues the energy crisis is exposing how outdated many portfolio and policy assumptions have become. It frames the bigger issue as a shift from trusting financial reserves and open trade to prioritizing physical energy security. Asia looks especially vulnerable, with South Korea holding just 10 days of gas inventories.

Key Takeaways

Energy Buffers Matter: China entered the crisis with 50 days of gas reserves versus 10 for South Korea.
Oil Market Signals Changed: Oil majors gained between 30% and 90% over 12 months, while Saudi Aramco was down.
Coal Could Return Fast: In 2025, China exported 8.3mn cars, including 4.9mn internal combustion models that support fuel demand.
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