A Golden Opportunity

+ Boaz Weinstein, Antti Ilmanen (x2), Ray Dalio, Kate Moore, Jonathan Clements & More

Author

The Idea Farm
August 17, 2025

“Heads I win, tails I don't lose much.”

— Mohnish Pabrai

Research

In the fourth post from Antti Ilmanen’s series, he analyzes how investors have formed long-run return expectations over time, and how academics have perceived that investors do it (or ought to do it).

In the fifth post from Antti Ilmanen’s series, he decomposes S&P 500 returns into yield, growth, and valuation change effects. He states the most relevant predictor, equity market’s starting yield, is historically low, while the less sustainable contributions of growth and repricing have risen in recent decades.

Goldman Sachs - The Path to 2075 — The Positive Story of Global Aging (21 pages)

Goldman Sachs explains how the combination of increased longevity and declining fertility have led to an aging population. Then they walk through the economic effects of this, particularly across developed economics.

As of May 20, 2025

Aspect Capital examines how systematic trend-following strategies have navigated four major macroeconomic periods—from the DotCom bubble to the post-pandemic inflation surge—highlighting their adaptability and resilience amid shifting market conditions. They emphasize that while returns can be volatile in the short term, trend-following strategies have consistently demonstrated the ability to adjust to evolving regimes and deliver long-term diversification benefits.

The Atlanta Fed’s Policy Hub digs into the effects of rapid population aging on inflation, real interest rates, and GDP growth, which may be causing deflationary pressures and secular stagnation.

Acadian studies the country positioning of emerging market equity managers, finding it didn’t help returns and was infected by return chasing.

Bonus Content

“Institutions own a jumble of equity things — nearly countless, largely illiquid and beyond their control. And they diversify via costly managed portfolios, something finance theorists frown upon as not being cost-effective. This is the story of scattershot diversfication.” Link

J.P. Morgan updated their Guide to ETFs. Link

75% of alternative mutual funds have died. There are lessons in that for would-be private market investors. Link

Bloomberg’s “The Gambler’s Edge on Wall Street” features Boaz Weinstein and Liv Boeree (24 minutes). Link

After receiving a terminal cancer diagnosis, Jonathan Clements came up with a plan to turn kids into lifelong savers. Link

Vanguard’s latest Risk Appetite Speedometers indicate that investors and their advisors have continued to “stay the course.” Link

Podcasts

7/24/2025 - 61 minutes

Mark Yusko and Cory Lester of Morgan Creek Capital Management share their mid-year update and what excites them about the rest of the year & beyond.

7/10/2025 - 56 minutes

Dalio to discuss the growing risks in global debt markets, the complacency he sees in bond pricing, and the investment case for gold.

8/7/2025 - 63 minutes

Moore gives a presentation about the macro landscape, touching on the labor market, investor positioning, and the gap between public and private corporate sentiment.

What Else Is Happening