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- 📈 2024 Market Outlooks
📈 2024 Market Outlooks
Research Affiliates, Mutual Funds, Tom Murphy, Allison Thacker, Parenting, Alf & more
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Research
Research Affiliates - From Abundance to Austerity: Why the Next Decade Won’t Be Like the Last (9 pages)
While the post-GFC period has been an era dominated by the exceptional return of the U.S. 60/40 portfolio, the reintroduction of macro volatility, along with increasing geopolitical risks, are reasons Research Affiliates believes investors should reconsider tactical asset allocation in their portfolios. They highlight the opportunity in value stocks, emerging market stocks and real assets.
PwC - Mutual Funds 2030 (22 pages)
PwC’s 2030 mutual fund outlook predicts slower growth, consolidation, and further fee pressure. Their five main predictions are:
Passive funds will account for 58% of total US mutual fund industry AUM by 2025, up from 44% in 2022.
Up to 20% of today’s mutual fund firms will be acquired or eliminated by 2030.
Combined active and passive fund expense ratios will decline by 19% by 2030.
Mega managers will account for 65% of US mutual fund AUM by 2030, up from 55% in 2020.
Assets under management (AUM) growth in US mutual funds will grow to 6% (CAGR) between 2022 and 2030, reaching $38 trillion, slowing from 7.4% between 2010 and 2022.
2024 Market Outlooks
We shared a couple of outlooks already, but here are all the 2024 outlooks we’ve found so far. You can share them on Twitter or LinkedIn.
Tker’s Sam Ro has a great post summarizing different price targets for 2024.
BlackRock: 2024 Global Outlook
PIMCO: Prime Time for Bonds
Robeco: 2024 Outlook: Goldilocks: Exit stage right
Charles Schwab: U.S. Outlook: One Thing Leads to Another
Charles Schwab: 2024 Global Outlook: The Big Picture
Charles Schwab: Fixed Income Outlook: The Rocky Road Bond Market
S&P Global: 2024 Capital Markets Outlook
State Street Global Advisors: 2024 Global Market Outlook
Invesco: 2024 Investment Outlook
Summary Reports
Vanguard: Economic and Market Outlook for 2024
Morgan Stanley: 2024 Global Macroeconomic Outlook: Central Banks Look for ‘Just Right’ on Rates
Morgan Stanley: 2024 Investment Outlook: Threading the Needle
Goldman Sachs: Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part is Over
Goldman Sachs: 2024 U.S. Equity Outlook: “All You Had To Do Was Stay”
Bank of America: 2024 Outlook
Capital Market Assumptions
J.P. Morgan: 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
BNY Mellon: 2024 Capital Market Assumptions: The Path to Normalization
Real Estate
Nareit: 2024 REIT Market Outlook
Realtor.com: 2024 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions
Redfin: 2024 Housing Market Predictions
Zillow: 2024 Housing Market Predictions
Miscellaneous
Cambridge Associates: 2024 Outlook: Private Equity & Venture Capital
Deloitte: 2024 Investment Management Outlook
McKinsey: The State of Fashion 2024
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Podcasts
Another great episode of the Founders podcast, this time about Tom Murphy’s approach to investing and building a long-lasting investment firm. |
Allison Thacker serves as the CIO for Rice University’s $8 billion endowment. She discusses her experience as both a direct investor and endowment manager, Rice’s heavy allocation to real assets, and blending internal and external management and generalists and deep specialization. |
Economist Melissa Kearney shares takeaways from her book, The Two-Parent Privilege, which looks at implications of the plummeting marriage rates in the US. Note: the U.S. now leads the world in single-parent households. |
🤔 What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with Alfonso “Alf” Peccatiello about Dr. Yield Curve and the Emerging Markets decade.
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Deal of the Week
Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out!