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The State of Retirement Income (Sorry Dave Ramsey)

Author

The Idea Farm
December 03, 2023

Together With

“An irrational drop in price makes a stock cheaper. A rational drop in price makes it more expensive.”

- Gautam Baid

Research

Morningstar says stronger fixed-income returns have boosted the estimated starting safe withdrawal percentage to 4%, the highest level in three years.

Vanguard explains how a valuation-aware, dynamic asset allocation approach may be suitable for investors increase the likelihood investors achieve their return target, while possibly providing a similar (or better) expected return compared to a static portfolio (sometimes even with lower volatility).

Facts & Figures

“The share of US homes that are mortgage-free jumped 5 percentage points from 2012 to 2022, to a record just shy of 40%. More than half of these owners have reached retirement age.” Source: Bloomberg

As of 2022

Valuation matters, especially in the long-run.

Great chart from J.P. Morgan that puts the magnitude of the bond sell-off in historical perspective. Link

Published on November 9, 2023

The Nikkei 225 was flat from July 1990 through November 13, 2023. Link

Source: Bespoke Investment Group. As of November 13, 2023

“The US has driven all the growth in global oil supply, both over the past decade and over the past year.” Link

As of October 22, 2023

Americans have bet $245 billion on sporting events since restrictions were loosened in 2018. Link

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Podcasts

11/17/23 - 57 minutes

Greenig discusses trend-following in-depth, why he thinks ‘Pax Americana’ is ending, the risks and opportunities in the energy transition and more.

11/13/23 - 97 minutes

Gerstner shares the lessons he's learned across the full arc of his career, why essentialism has been so important to him, and why he’s devoted time to Invest America, a movement to make every child in the US a saver and investor beginning the day they are born.

9/21/23 - 49 minutes

Few people study economic opportunity as much as Raj Chetty. In this episode, Chetty shares how higher education and a child’s environment both impact economic mobility in the US.

WHAT ELSE IS HAPPENING

Meb Faber spoke with Jonathan Treussard & Nic Johnson about carbon credits and other commodities, pre-worrying and disrupting the residential real estate market.

Register for YCharts year-end webinar with Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson on December 6, 2023 at 2:00p ET.

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