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- Deficit & Demographic Disasters
Deficit & Demographic Disasters
+ Cam Harvey, Ray Dalio, Kenneth Rogoff, Dan Ivascyn & More
The Idea Farm
July 13, 2025
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“There are only two types of people: those who can’t market time, and those who don’t know they can’t market time.”
Research
With passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpassing active management in aggregate investor allocations, Chris Brightman and Campbell Harvey explain the risks and opportunities for investors
Goldman Sachs’ covers the US fiscal deficit issue from a variety of angles. This includes interviews with Ray Dalio, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, and historian Sir Niall Ferguson and have other commentary around this issue for Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets.
McKinsey - Dependency and depopulation: Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality (82 pages)
McKinsey published a huge report that explores the implications of a new demographic reality brought on by falling fertility and increasing longevity. While greater longevity is impacting the change in the age profiles of populations in developed countries since 1960, falling fertility rates explain 80% of the change.
Source: World Population Prospects 2024, United Nationals, McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Deutsche Bank has a fun look at the world’s cheapest and most expensive cities, covering the quality of life, rental costs and prices for phones, coffee, taxis and more in 69 cities. They state, “If 2012 marked “cheap US,” 2025 may represent “peak US”—at least in pricing terms.”
See slide 8 - individual investors have high expectations for future returns.
Bonus Content
Paul Donovan uses bananas as a case study on the impact of tariffs. Link
The King of Spacs is back! FT Alphaville covers the return of Chamath Palihapitiya. Link
J.P. Morgan Asset Management published their quarterly Guide to the Markets and Guide to Alternatives. Link
Mary Meeker compiled a huge report (340 slides) on AI trends. Page 4 has an outline to help you navigate to a particular section. Link
Nareit published their Q1 REIT industry update. Link
Podcasts
 6/26/2025 - 39 minutes | Ivascyn and Draho walk through how to approach asset allocation in today’s market and macro environment. They also spend time weighing potential directions for US trade policy, along with the Fed, geopolitical considerations, and more. |
 6/19/2025 - 147 minutes | Gavekal Dragonomics’ Arthur Kroeber walks through how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance and how the US & China can create a productive, mutually beneficial relationship. |
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with Goldman Sachs’ Sara Naison-Tarajano about how global family offices are investing today. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Can you get Berkshire returns without the Oracle? Link
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