European Renewal

+ Rob Citrone, Michael Cembalest, Dan Rasmussen, Goldman Sachs, AQR & More

Author

The Idea Farm
June 15, 2025

Sponsored by

“The only thing wealth does for some people is to make them worry about losing it.”

— Antoine Rivarol

Research

Morgan Stanley covers the second-order effects of AI & automation, noting that while big technological innovations create huge investment opportunities, it’s often the companies that leverage the technology, rather than the suppliers that create the most enduring value for investors. They propose a way to systematically identify which companies are set for efficiency gains and increased profitability from adopting AI.

Goldman Sachs explains why they believe Europe’s ambitious fiscal and defense spending plans present new opportunities for active investors in an already alpha-rich environment.

While various economic indicators can signal regime change, market pricing measures can offer clearer timing cues. Henry Neville shares five quantitative signs that secular stagnation is over.

Source: Bloomberg, Man Group. As of May 2025.

In Part III of the series from Antti Ilmanen, he explores why equity investors tend to extrapolate recent trends in returns and earnings growth, while bond investors tend to expect mean reversion in rates. He also examines very long run trends in financial market variables and potential implications for the future.

Bonus Content

Dan Rasmussen explains how a lack of exits for deals struck by managers in frothy times is straining private equity’s business model. Link

Robeco covers emerging markets, which are outperforming in 2025. Link

Wall Street wants to sell more ‘alternative’ assets to small investors, but Jason Zweig explains why the glory days for these assets may already be ending. Link

While managed futures strategies are in the midst of a historically challenging period of performance, Katy Kaminski reminds us that the strategy historically performed well in the time periods following drawdowns. Link

Emerging Markets Shareholder Yield

The Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF focuses on high-cash distribution companies located in emerging markets.

EYLD’s process goes beyond focusing on just dividends alone to include buybacks and debt paydown, a trio collectively known as shareholder yield. The result is a portfolio of companies that rank highly on shareholder yield and offer strong free cash flow characteristics.

Get emerging markets exposure with companies focused on dividends and buybacks with the Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF, EYLD.

Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. To determine if this Fund is an appropriate investment for you, carefully consider the Fund's investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expense before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund's full or summary prospectus which may be obtained by calling 855-383-4636 (ETF INFO) or visiting our website at www.cambriafunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money.

Podcasts

5/29/2025 - 59 minutes

Cembalest explains why AI is the market "bet of the century" and why the dominance of US big tech can't be overstated.

5/8/2025 - 56 minutes

Rob Johnson reflects on the time he helped break the British pound and Swedish krona alongside George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, and now–Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

5/22/2025 - 22 minutes

Discovery Capital Management’s Rob Citrone discusses his investment framework, high-conviction views, and the importance of short positions in risk management.

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