Exploiting False Market Narratives

+ Chris Sacca, Ashvin Chhabra, Marc Andreessen, Louis-Vincent Gave, Apollo, KKR & More

Author

The Idea Farm
February 16, 2025

Together With

“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.”

— Bertrand Russell

Research

Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation, says he “can’t think of a time outside of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis when investor appetite for what is going on in the macro landscape has been this high.” This expands on his 2025 outlook by covering a variety of topics, including tariffs and U.S.-China tensions.

With both stocks and bonds becoming more correlated and trading at elevated valuations, Apollo looks at whether or not private markets can enhance potential returns and improve diversification.

Gavekal - Building Narratives Around Obvious Outliers (11 pages)

Louis-Vincent Gave examines both market and economic outliers and attempts to tie them together in somewhat coherent narratives. He touches on US exceptionalism, China sentiment, Turkey and more.

In a more recent note, Louis-Vincent Gave suggests China’s recent launch of Deepseek challenges prevailing beliefs underpinning the bull market in U.S. growth stocks.

Bonus Content

Joachim Klement compares today’s billionaire class to the robber barons of the Gilded Age. Link

AngelList published their year-end report on the state of venture capital and startups, highlighting the enthusiasm around AI startups, underperformance of recent vintages, and more. Link

Just because you think 2021 was a bubble doesn’t mean that we can’t have a repeat today. Link

A Morningstar study found that investors who favored cheaper funds with strong past pre-fee performance fared best over the past two decades. Link

Source: Morningstar Direct. Data as of 12/31/2024.

SPONSORED BY THE CAMBRIA SHAREHOLDER YIELD ETF (SYLD)
LOOK BEYOND JUST DIVIDENDS

Healthy, thriving businesses often have something in common: lots of cash flow.

Many investors love companies that return this cash flow to shareholders through dividend payments. But dividends aren't the only way management can use its cash to create value for shareholders.

Smart managers can often buy back stock or pay off debt. These two options, along with dividends, create the trio known as shareholder yield.

So how does the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD) work?

  • SYLD selects the top 100 companies each calendar quarter based on dividends and buybacks.

  • The fund will also screen for value and quality factors, including low financial leverage, in order to avoid value traps.

  • SYLD will then equally weight each one of the selected companies in the portfolio to maximize diversification.

Explore a different approach to yield investing with the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF, SYLD.

Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. To determine if this Fund is an appropriate investment for you, carefully consider the Fund's investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expense before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund's full or summary prospectus which may be obtained by calling 855-383-4636 (ETF INFO) or visiting our website at www.cambriafunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money.

Podcasts

1/28/2025 - 42 minutes

Chhabra is the President of Euclidean Capital, the family office of the late investing legend Jim Simons. He explains why he left Merrill Lynch for that role, how chaos theory influences his investing approach, and more.

1/23/2025 - 186 minutes

Starting at minute 11, Sacca discusses his personal journey, modern society, the impact of AI, climate investing and more.

2/11/2025 - 83 minutes

a16z’s Marc Andreessen talks about AI & DeepSeek, politics, the tech arms race between US & China, and more.

What Else Is Happening

Deal of the Week

YCharts is a web based financial research and analysis platform for asset managers and advisors. Click here to receive 20% off of YCharts Professional (new users only).*

*Sponsored link