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9/15
The Idea Farm
September 15, 2024
Together With
“More fiction has been written in Excel than in Word.”
Research
Cliff Asness believes the stock market has become less efficient during the past 34 years. He shares three hypotheses (below) and explains why that means disciplined, value-based stock picking is both riskier and more rewarding long term.
Indexing Has Ruined the Market
Very Low Interest Rates for a Very Long Period
We Have the Effect of Technology Backwards
As of August 30, 2024
UBS - Global Wealth Report 2024 (39 pages)
UBS’ annual report highlights key themes related to global wealth, including:
The world has been getting progressively richer across all wealth segments - The proportion of people in the world in the lowest wealth bracket has shrunk since 2008, while the proportion of people in every other wealth bracket has grown.
Wealth mobility has been more likely to be upward than downward - Roughly one in three individuals moves into a higher wealth band within a decade.
A great horizontal wealth transfer is under way - USD 83.5 trillion of wealth will be transferred within the next 20–25 years.
The number of millionaires is on track to keep growing - In 2023, millionaires accounted for 1.5% of the adult population analyzed, and the U.S. had 38% of all millionaires.
As of December 31, 2023
Vanguard analyzes allocators risk appetite and what they’re buying and selling across more than 100 sub-asset classes, durations, styles, sectors, and thematic investment categories.
As of June 30, 2024
Bonus Content
Liz Ann Sonders shares lessons learned from some all-time investment greats during her 38 year career. Link
Schroders’ Duncan Lamont explains why investors should be cautious about chasing performance. Link
A 30 year-old from Queens hacked the U.K. game shows and turned quizzing into a full-time profession. Link
A little-known provision in US law permits anyone to blow the whistle on financial fraud, and potentially take home a percentage of the funds collected. One undercover sleuth has made a wild career out of it. Link
Where Sophisticated Investors Access Private Markets
For individual investors, sourcing and vetting high-quality, sub-scale private market opportunities poses challenges – information asymmetry, adverse selection, insufficient resources, etc.
Enter 10 East.
10 East, led by Michael Leffell, is a platform where qualified investors can invest in vetted private credit, real estate, niche venture/private equity, and other one-off investments that aren’t typically available through traditional channels.
10 East principals have a 12+ year track record of strong performance across 355+ transactions.
And the best part? 10 East offers the flexibility to invest on a deal-by-deal basis, while co-investing alongside industry veterans who have skin-in-the-game.
10 East is where founders, executives, and portfolio managers from leading firms are diversifying their personal wealth.
Podcasts
 8/27/24 - 91 minutes | Baker covers the competition among the Magnificent Seven, what he's learned from Nvidia, and how investors should approach the current AI paradigm. |
 8/3/24 - 122 minutes | Porter Stansberry’s new podcast will dive into the operations, finances, customers, and strategies that make each company a world-class investment. First up: McDonald’s. |
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with Rob Arnott about investing in stocks after they’re deleted from an index. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Owen Lamont read Don’t Blame Indexing for Your Problems on The Best Investment Writing podcast. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
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