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- Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater Illuminate the Path Forward
Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater Illuminate the Path Forward
The Idea Farm
October 27, 2024
Together With
“The stock market always does exactly what it is supposed to do, but never when.”
Research
Greg Jensen suggests that the combination of breakthrough AI advancements and a ripe macroeconomic environment indicates the AI bubble may still be forming, rather than behind us.
Source: Bridgewater
Bridgewater - US Exceptionalism: Drivers of Equity Outperformance and What’s Needed for a Repeat (15 pages)
Bridgewater breaks down the drivers behind the S&P 500 outperformance since 2010 (rising margins, rising P/E ratios, massive fiscal support to profits) and says the hurdle for continued US outperformance is high, with a lot depending on technology.
As of September 17, 2024
Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal return of 3% over the next decade, placing it in the 7th percentile historically, with high market concentration significantly contributing to the lower forecast.
Goldman Sachs - Diversify to Amplify (19 pages)
Peter Oppenheimer’s team says economic growth alongside lower policy rates creates a more favorable environment for equities, though high valuations and rising long-term rates may limit index-level gains, making alpha generation and diversification key drivers of future returns.
Where Sophisticated Investors Access Private Markets
For individual investors, sourcing and vetting high-quality, sub-scale private market opportunities poses challenges – information asymmetry, adverse selection, insufficient resources, etc.
Enter 10 East.
10 East, led by Michael Leffell, is a platform where qualified investors can invest in vetted private credit, real estate, niche venture/private equity, and other one-off investments that aren’t typically available through traditional channels.
10 East principals have a 12+ year track record of strong performance across 355+ transactions.
And the best part? 10 East offers the flexibility to invest on a deal-by-deal basis, while co-investing alongside industry veterans who have skin-in-the-game.
10 East is where founders, executives, and portfolio managers from leading firms are diversifying their personal wealth.
Podcasts
 9/30/24 - 65 minutes | Salem, the founding president and CIO of TIFF, shares principles that guide successful investment strategies, lessons from investing greats, and his current views on global markets. |
 9/26/24 - 73 minutes | One of the world’s largest sports investors covers the state of play on the sports business ecosystem. |
What Else Is Happening
Did you miss last week’s email?
Michael Mauboussin explains how share buybacks & issuance impact investors & companies (12 minutes).
Webinar: Tax Aware Investing
Meb Faber and Wes Gray will host a webinar on Thursday, October 31 at 11am ET to discuss the launch of the Cambria Tax Aware ETF (TAX) and the 351 to ETF contribution process. Register here.