Gundlach, Grantham & The Government

+ Kahneman, Bessent, Lutnick, Apple, Retirement & More

Author

The Idea Farm
March 30, 2025

Sponsored by

“Mistakes fade away; winners can forever blossom.”

— Warren Buffett

Research

GMO - Rising Toxicity and the Threat to Capitalism and Life Itself (19 pages)

Jeremy Grantham does a deep dive on the interaction of toxicity with global demographics, which he says is the most complicated issue he’s ever written about. He expands on the economic implications and highlights the need for an investment strategy built on resilience to handle the recurrent shocks to GDP that will ensue.

J.P. Morgan’s updated guide covers trends on the retirement landscape, saving, spending, investing and more.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of March 2025.

This paper revisits the results from the 2005 paper titled, Does Trend Following Work on Stocks? The answer: yes.

As of January 6, 2025

Bonus Content

The downside risks to the S&P 500 as a result of foreigners selling are potentially significant. Link

John Gruber explains why the delayed announcement of a new Siri could mark a key moment in Apple’s history. Link

Are companies really staying private for longer? No. Link

Shortly before Daniel Kahneman died last March, he emailed friends a message: He was choosing to end his own life in Switzerland. Link

Global Asset Allocation

The Cambria Global Asset Allocation ETF utilizes a quantitative approach to manage a diversified portfolio of global asset classes. GAA is an unconstrained, go-anywhere global strategy that targets an allocation of:

  • 45% global stocks

  • 45% global bonds

  • 10% to other asset classes such as commodities, currencies,

    real estate and alternative strategies

Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. To determine if this Fund is an appropriate investment for you, carefully consider the Fund's investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expense before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund's full or summary prospectus which may be obtained by calling 855-383-4636 (ETF INFO) or visiting our website at www.cambriafunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money.

Podcasts

3/19/2025 - 73 minutes

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent covers his time as a macro investor and then walks through the Trump Administration’s economic strategy.

3/20/2025 - 105 minutes

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick walks through his road from business to politics, DOGE, tariffs, global trade, the strategy for a sovereign wealth fund, and more.

3/18/2025 - 70 minutes

Gundlach covers the shifting economic landscape, from rising interest rates to inflation volatility, and their implications for investors. He also on national debt, portfolio diversification and valuations.

What Else Is Happening

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