How “transitory” is 8% inflation?

“Finance is often poetically just; it punishes the reckless with special fervor.”

– Roger Lowenstein


PIMCO advocates for caution around higher-risk investments given higher interest rates and the challenging macro environment, but notes that there is a compelling case to be made today for bonds.

Research Affiliates shares why they believe the Federal Reserve is overly optimistic about inflation declining back to 2%. Two interesting notes:

  • After inflation crosses 8%, it proceeds to higher levels over 70% of the time

  • Once inflation is above 8%, reverting to 3% usually takes 6 to 20 years, with a median of 10 years


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 Professor Campbell Harvey on the FTX bankruptcy, why it isn’t crypto’s Lehman moment, and why he still believes in DeFi. Link

 John Authers on the set up for value today … and why it may have more room to run. Link

 Ben Hunt delineates between stock buybacks for stock-based compensation and stock buybacks to return capital to shareholders. Link

Apple, on the other hand, used 88% of its $550 billion in buybacks to shrink the share count and actually return capital to shareholders. Add on the $130 billion in dividends and Apple has returned >90% of its FCF over the past 10 years to shareholders!

 “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” – Mark Twain. Link

 Natural resource firm Goehring & Rozencwajg walks through the history of energy and the current state of the energy transition (start at 6:38). Link

We estimate in 1900, it took nearly 70% less energy to meet a persons energetic needs than it did throughout most of history, despite the fact that per capita energy demand had grown by 50%.


Jan van Eck puts the current economic environment into historical context, discusses labor inflation, and shares his framework for launching ETFs.

521. I’m Your Biggest Fan![11/2/22 – 44 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google

Freakonomics looks at the psychology of fandom, the drawbacks of tying your beliefs to your identity, and how this manifests itself in politics.

Start at 35:19 when they interview CME Group Chairman & CEO Terry Duffy, who shares his take on the FTX bankruptcy and why he was skeptical of Sam Bankman-Fried when they met. Here’s a great teaser clip.

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