Living with 100% inflation

“Surviving bear markets requires you to manage both volatility and your emotions.”

– Ben Carlson


PGIM on the transformation of private capital, private credit and equity, and portfolio implications.  Some interesting nuggets:

  • Since 2001, US pensions have doubled their allocation to alternative assets to over 20%.

  • Direct lending from private credit funds has grown from less than $10 billion in 2006 to over $400 billion today.

  • Banks today provide only about 30% of corporate loans, down from 70% in 1982.

  • In 2021, new VC unicorns outnumbered IPOs in the US for the first time.

  • VC fund performance has lagged in risk-adjusted returns net of fees since 2000.

  • The median size of LBOs has doubled since 2011 from $48 million to $101 million today.

  • (Private equity) GP-led secondary transactions have doubled over the past five years to almost 50% of all secondary volume.

  • PE-owned firms now manage almost 7% of the overall $7.5 trillion of US insurance assets.

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 Blackstone’s Jon Gray covers a range of topics, but notably at the beginning on why he’s bullish on UK assets (12 minutes). Link

 Russell Napier shares how investors should prepare for an extended period of financial repression and elevated inflation. Link

 Matt Levine with a long read on the state of crypto. Link

 The US 10Y/3M yield curve has now inverted. Campbell Harvey shares what this mean for investors (8 minutes). Link

 Bob Elliott on the dangers of return chasing and benefits of diversification. Link

This episode looks at the state of personal finance advice, why the psychological aspect of advice needs to be considered, and why rational decisions aren’t always what people should do with their money.

From The Episode:“There is not the equivalent of 2 + 2 = 4 in personal finance. You cannot read a paper or look at a spreadsheet and change the amount of dopamine or cortisol in your brain.”

Zuegel expands on her recent article, touching on how Argentinians are living with 100%+ annual inflation, how society has evolved to function differently than a country without high inflation, and whether or not crypto has become a solution to the problem.

Abrams walks through his entrepreneurial journey and the adversity he faced while building the company, including robberies of trucks full of inventory, launching a mens line at the start of COVID, and a surprise from Gisele Bündchen. 

From The Episode:“Whatever the result was, it almost didn’t matter because the journey became so liberating…it didn’t matter what the obstacles were because they became part of the journey.”

In one of the best episodes of the year on the energy situation, Doomberg discusses the transition from energy abundance to energy scarcity, why there needs to be more investment in nuclear energy, and what he expects to happen with Europe this winter.

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