Macro Views

December 04, 2012

I am in Phoenix and Tucson this week, drop me a line if you’re around!

A couple pieces from Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro:

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“Fears over the fiscal cliff do not explain the slowing in capex; it’s mostly about slowing earnings growth. We see little scope for a quick rebound in large companies’ capex; small firms should do better. The Sandy hit is gradually unwinding from the jobless claims data; the trend is probably about flat.”

A sample from the piece:

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Download the PDFs here:

Laura Reilly

Pantheon Macroeconomic AdvisorsVice-President, Sales

About Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors

Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent economic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world. Our work focuses on the United States, but we draw on long experience to assess and forecast the impact of global economic and market developments.

We seek to provide actionable intelligence in our research, which is published daily and is available by subscription only. Our clients appreciate our candor and rigor, and our willingness to take non-consensus views when our analysis leads us away from the herd. Pantheon’s clients include banks, hedge funds, pension funds and investors in property and other assets.

Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, has over 20 years experience in both independent and institutional macroeconomic research, and has lived and worked in the United States and Britain. His research is direct, clear and free of economic jargon, but firmly grounded in his analysis of the data. Find out more about our products and services.

Ian Shepherdson’s Biography

Ian Shepherdson’s mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

His ability to make robust, non-consensus calls and to defend his views with hard analysis has earned him a consistent following in the markets and plaudits from the media over many years. Dr. Shepherdson has been lauded in the New York Times as “consistently right” and the Edmonton Journal calls him an “especially astute observer” of the U.S. economic scene. The London Times labeled him one of “the best economists in the City”.

In recent years, Dr. Shepherdson was one of the very first analysts to predict—as early as the fall of 2005—that a crash in the U.S. housing market would drive the economy into recession. Before that, he warned that the Fed would mistakenly adopt ultra-accommodative policy after the invasion of Iraq, and that this policy would be maintained for too long, eventually leading to inflation pressure.

Before establishing Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ian Shepherdson was the Chief U.S. Economist for High Frequency Economics. From 1996 to 1998 he was the Chief Economist, U.S.A., for HSBC, based in New York. From 1990 through 1996 Ian was based in London, latterly as the Chief U.K. Economist for HSBC.

Ian earned a PhD in Economics and a BSc in Banking and Finance from Loughborough University.