🌏 National Capitalism

+ Michael Cembalest, Jeff Bezos, Owen Lamont, Russell Napier, Jesse Itzler & More

Author

The Idea Farm
January 05, 2025

“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies.”

— Warren Buffett

Research

Run, don’t walk, to dive into Michael Cembalest’s 2025 Outlook. His 10 predictions for 2025 start on page 42.

GMO’s Q4 letter covers a number of topics, including why they believe U.S. large cap value stocks are attractive today, why they are cautious on China, and why they are tilting towards quality in U.S. small cap stocks.

The Market - We Are Headed Towards a System of National Capitalism (15 pages)

Market strategist and historian Russell Napier says the global monetary system that has existed since 1994 is being radically restructured. He explains why this leads him to believe the future may feature governments mandating where investors should deploy their capital.

Bonus Content

Owen Lamont says big growth stocks are becoming increasingly disconnected from the rest of the market, with the current disconnect at the 99th percentile. Link

Capital Group thinks small cap stocks may have hit an inflection point. Link

J.P. Morgan Asset Management published their year-end Guide to the Markets. Link

Jeff Bezos covers what’s next for Amazon, Blue Origin and his vision for humanity’s future in space (66 minutes). Link

You can own the cheapest stocks, or you can own the largest, but finding opportunities to own both simultaneously is rare in today's market. Link

Podcasts

9/27/24 - 17 minutes

BlackRock’s Ronald Van Loon uses a commencement speech by Roger Federer as a jumping off point to discuss the parallels between tennis and investing.

12/16/24 - 59 minutes

Entrepreneur Jesse Itzler shares some ideas on how to be proactive and get 2025 off to a big start.

6/21/24 - 40 minutes

Tim Hartford shares the story of the brothers behind Adidas and Puma, and how their rivalry divided the sporting world, their family and even their home town.

What Else is Happening

Check out the top 5 episodes of The Meb Faber Show from 2024:

  1. Aswath Damodaran on the corporate lifecycle, the end of ESG, sugar daddies & more. Apple | Spotify | YouTube

  2. Brad Gerster on the AI supercycle and Invest America. Apple | Spotify | YouTube

  3. Cliff Asness on why markets have become less efficient during his career. Apple | Spotify | YouTube

  4. Hendrik Bessembinder on wealth generation and power laws in the stock market. Apple | Spotify | YouTube

  5. Professor Ken French on long-term investing, the global market portfolio, misconceptions about stock buybacks & more. Apple | Spotify | YouTube