SBF on Ponzi Schemes, Grantham & Jim Rogers on Commodities

“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.“– Warren Buffett

RESEARCH

Putin’s Invasion Reminds Us That We Live in a Finite World – GMO (4 pages): Jeremy Grantham shares his view on the finite nature of our natural resources.

State of Play – KKR (32 Pages): KKR works through questions about the impacts of the war against Ukraine might have on economics and markets. The piece then gets into some structural components in play that have the potential to shift the global economic environment.

PODCASTS

Investing

Jim Rogers on Commodities[4/22/22–53 minutes] Apple | Spotify | Google

Jim Rogers is a long-time commodity investor and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (interview begins at 7:00). He discusses:

• Which commodities he favors today given the dispersion in prices• His thoughts on currencies, the dollar’s future as the global reserve currency, & crypto• Why he likes Russia, Brazil, & Iran

From The Episode:“Part of the problem with gold and silver historically has been that if it starts putting constraints on politicians, which is one of the great strengths of gold and silver, then they change the rules. Politicians don’t like to be constrained, they like to have complete control and power.”

Louis-Vincent Gave: Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions[4/25/22–49 minutes] Apple | Spotify | Google

Gave is the Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, an independent provider of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, which manages $2.7 billion. He discusses:

• The potential second order impacts of freezing reserves, seizing oligarch assets, end of Swiss neutrality, energy prices, and military spending• How all of the above may affect China

From The Episode:“The era of the momentum investor and the era of the carry trade investor are now done. We’ve entered the period of the return to the mean investor.”

Sam Bankman-Fried and Matt Levine on How to Make Money in Crypto[4/25/22–56 minutes] Apple | Spotify | Google

Bankman-Fried is the CEO and co-founder of FTX, and one of the world’s youngest billionaires. He discusses:

• The evolution of the crypto space• His explanation of yield farming and if labeling it as a Ponzi scheme is a reasonable take• How many arbitrage opportunities there are today

From The Episode:“And now all of a sudden of course, the smart money’s like, oh, wow, this thing’s now yielding like 60% a year in X tokens. Of course I’ll take my 60% yield, right? So they go and pour another $300 million in the box and you get a psych and then it goes to infinity.”

Good investing,Meb Fabertheideafarm.com