The Housing Market Feels Like a ‘New Weird’

“The best thing is to be a high conviction investor. When you dabble and just put a bunch of money on things you don’t know or understand, it tends to work out badly.”

– Jon Gray

RESEARCH

Hendrik Bessembinder – The Role of Net Income Growth in Explaining Long-Horizon Stock Return (18 pages)

Hendrik Bessembinder gets into the explanatory power of growth in a handful of accounting-based firm characteristics with decade-long horizons in mind.

Source: Hendrik Bessembinder. For illustrative and discussion purposes only.

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Morgan Housel – The Psychology of Money (Your Questions Answered)[9/15/22 – 50 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google

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From The Episode:“All behavior makes sense with enough information.”

Stanley Druckenmiller, the #1 investor in the world – See the future differently[9/22/22 – 70 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google

Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller walks through the big moments in his life, his approach to investing, and why we’re living in a time that’s unlike any period he’s seen before.

From The Episode:

• “Graduate economics, they were trying to jam the world into a mathematical equation and I just didn’t think it fit. I’ve think I’ve been proved right on that if you look at the 800 PhD’s at the Fed and you look at their predictive record, it’s not so good.”

• “I have more humility than I’ve ever had in terms of a forecast. In fact, my positions reflect that. They’re very light. Not because I’m scared, just because I can’t see a fat pitch, I can’t figure it out.”

• “I’m constantly fighting my bearishness about the world…I know that if you have a bearish bias, you have to be very aware of it. You have to work around it. And I always have.”

• “We’ve never seen the gap we have now between monetary policy and inflation. A lot of my gig is to go back and find historical analogues and see how they worked out and learn from them. This is the most unprecedented cocktail I’ve ever been served up.”

Tom Thornton and John Roque With an All Star Lineup – When Doves Cry[8/30/22 – 165 minutes]Apple | Spotify | Google

This is from a Twitter spaces and features Jim Chanos, Doomberg, Jim Bianco, Nancy Davis, and others, share their view of the market today. 

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