The New Joule Order

+ Peter Thiel, Carl Kawaja, Peter Linneman, Jared Dillian, LBO Replication & More

Author

The Idea Farm
April 27, 2025

“There is a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable.”

— Thomas Schelling

Research

Morningstar - Taking the Private out of Private Equity, with the Morningstar PitchBook Buyout Replication Index  (17 pages)

Morningstar identifies the fundamental characteristics of buyout investing within a portfolio of public equities. Then they adjust the portfolio for leverage and sector exposures to construct a portfolio that replicates a PE buyout strategy.

Sources: Morningstar and PitchBook. Geography: US. As of December 31, 2024 Note: This chart includes data from the beginning of 2000 for US public companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq, excluding commercial banks, holding companies, and investment trusts.

Carlyle - The New Joule Order (27 pages)

Jeff Currie posits that energy security, rather than climate concerns, is now the primary driver of the global energy transition. Nations are shifting towards diversified, domestically sourced energy mixes—including renewables, nuclear, and natural gas—to mitigate geopolitical and economic risks, marking a move from a "green premium" to a "security premium." He expands on the investment implications of this shift, advocating advocating for diversified portfolios that balance fixed-return assets like renewables with variable-return assets such as fossil fuels.

Source: Carlyle. As of March 2025.

Wells Fargo walks through five issues for fixed income investors to consider for today’s environment.

Bonus Content

Is buying gold at all time highs a good idea? Nope. It's a great idea. Link

Brian Jacobs explains how tax efficiency can smooth returns, not just boost them. Link

Jared Dillian writes about the importance of humility as an investor. Link 

“We are at a wonderful ball where the champagne sparkles in every glass, and soft laughter falls upon the summer air, we know at some moment the black horsemen will come shattering through the terrace doors, wreaking vengeance and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early are saved, but the ball is so splendid no one wants to leave while there is still time, so everyone keeps asking, ‘What time is it?’ But none of the clocks have hands.”

Adam Smith, The Money Game

Podcasts

4/17/2025 - 46 minutes

Thiel covers the state of startups and Venture Capital, the macro landscape, building Palantir & more.

4/17/2025 - 56 minutes

Linneman walks through the state of the economy, the impact of President Trump’s tariffs, the decline in the U.S. stock market this year & more.

3/18/2025 - 30 minutes

Haynes discusses the evolving landscape of index rebalancing and its impact on hedge funds, including the staggering $900 million loss suffered by pod shops due to pre-positioning ahead of index events.

What Else Is Happening