Themes & Memes

+ Seth Klarman, Goldman Sachs, Man Group, Richard Ennis & More

Author

The Idea Farm
September 21, 2025

Sponsored by

“Never think that lack of variability is stability. Don't confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever.”

— Nassim Taleb

Research

Carlyle argues that the old separation between fiscal and monetary policy is dissolving, creating ambiguity over policy impulses and increasing systemic risk — especially in light of AI‑driven investment that may exacerbate volatility and mispricing. They believe private markets offer an alternative to public stocks, which are being driven by “themes and memes.”

You can hear author Jason Thomas discuss some of these topics in a recent podcast.

Source: Carlyle. As of September 10, 2025.

Goldman Sachs argues that even with stable or falling policy rates, G10 governments face rising interest costs driven by large refinancing needs and persistent deficits. They find that lowering short-term rates is more effective at containing debt-servicing burdens than extending debt maturities, especially for the U.S. and U.K.

As of September 10, 2025

Man Group shows that trend‑following strategies—though often lumped together—actually produce wide performance dispersion depending on parameters like speed, carry, market universe, and asset allocation. In times of market stress, faster trend systems and inclusion of alternative markets tend to outperform, underscoring that how you implement trend following matters just as much as doing it.

Source: HFR, Inc., WithIntelligence, Bloomberg, Man Group Database. Date range: Jan 2000 – Dec 2024.

Louis-Vincent Gave reviews five of his strongest convictions related to 2025 bull and bear markets:

  • Conviction #1: The US dollar is in a Bear Market

  • Conviction #2: China is in an Equity Bull Market

  • Conviction #3: Financials are in a Bull Market

  • Conviction #4: LatAm Local Currency Debt is in a Bull Market

  • Conviction #5: Precious Metals are in a Bull Market

Morningstar - 2024 US Fund Fee Study (42 pages)

Morningstar’s annual report finds that "both the equal-weighted and asset-weighted average ETF fee measured less than half of the fee charged by mutual funds."

Bonus Content

Apollo highlights the extreme weight of AI in the S&P 500: Measures of concentration for market cap, returns, earnings, and capex. Link 

One big private-equity fund makes its numbers incomprehensible. Link

There is a hidden fragility in many asset allocation plans. Link

Over-diversification and redundant active management have created a monstrous inefficiency in US public pension investing—at taxpayers’ expense. Link

What’s driving the U.S. cattle herd size stagnation? “As of the end of 2024, the US cattle herd size reached the lowest level on record and is more than 30% smaller than the peak size it reached in 1974, and only four-fifths of the average size from 1973 to 2024 despite rising cattle prices over the same period.” Link

He claims he’s the ‘Sports Betting King.’ What are the odds? Link

SPONSORED BY THE CAMBRIA SHAREHOLDER YIELD ETF (SYLD)
LOOK BEYOND JUST DIVIDENDS

Healthy, thriving businesses often have something in common: lots of cash flow.

Many investors love companies that return this cash flow to shareholders through dividend payments. But dividends aren't the only way management can use its cash to create value for shareholders.

Smart managers can often buy back stock or pay off debt. These two options, along with dividends, create the trio known as shareholder yield.

So how does the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD) work?

  • SYLD selects the top 100 companies each calendar quarter based on dividends and buybacks.

  • The fund will also screen for value and quality factors, including low financial leverage, in order to avoid value traps.

  • SYLD will then equally weight each one of the selected companies in the portfolio to maximize diversification.

Explore a different approach to yield investing with the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF, SYLD.

Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. To determine if this Fund is an appropriate investment for you, carefully consider the Fund's investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expense before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund's full or summary prospectus which may be obtained by calling 855-383-4636 (ETF INFO) or visiting our website at www.cambriafunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money.

Podcasts

8/1/2025 - 55 minutes

Klarman reflects on his decades-long investment philosophy, timeless principles of market inefficiencies, specialization versus generalization, and technology trends like AI.

8/20/2025 - 56 minutes

Derek Thompson looks back at the development of US railroads in the late 1800s to learn about the nature of transformative technology and the messy business of building it.

5/23/2025 - 34 minutes

Zeke Faux purposely answers a random scam text to follow it to the overseas boiler rooms driving today’s industrial text-scam epidemic.

What Else Is Happening