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Top Podcasts of the Week
Today we have Jeff Currie & Tim Pickering on commodities, Dylan Grice on the end of duration, and Marc Chaikin on the benefits of combining technicals with fundamentals.
Investing
Superinvestors And The Art Of Worldly Wisdom: #51: Diego Parrilla On The Three Levels Of The Investment Game. Investor & author Diego Parrilla shares how he views the world today, the implications of a paradigm shift for inflation expectations across global markets, and how he’s positioning his portfolio to reflect that environment. His endless metaphors are great and his post titled The Frog in Boiling Water is a great read to get a glimpse of his thoughts on the world today. [April 13, 2022–90 minutes] Apple | Spotify | Google | Website Link
“This idea that you can fix problems by printing and debt is not a zero-sum game. It’s path dependent and you end up in a worse position than when you started.”
Top Traders Unplugged: SI187: Why Commodities & Why Now ft. Tim Pickering. Tim Pickering is the Founder of Auspice Capital. In this episode, he shares why he believes commodities play an important role in portfolios, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the importance of futures markets, the impact of ESG, Russia/Ukraine & inflation on commodities today, and what it was like to be part of the LME saga. [April 10, 2022–70 minutes] Apple | Spotify | Google | Website Link
“The ESG ratings for Russian oil companies have been higher than Canadian oil companies for a long-time. It’s laughable.”
Odd Lots: Jeff Currie on the ‘Volatility Trap’ Keeping Commodity Prices So High. Goldman’s commodity strategist Jeff Currie explains why he believes we’re just in the 2nd inning of a “commodity supercycle”. He shares why we’re in a “volatility trap” that’s not allowing investment to occur even today, what policy ideas he’d like to see happen, and how he’d implement trades for those who want exposure to this “supercycle.” [April 14, 2022–58 minutes] Apple | Spotify | Google | Website Link
“Spot prices solve surpluses; long-term contracts solve shortages.”
“Policy right now is a temperal solution to a structural problem.”
“I would argue that copper is likely to be the tightest commodity we’ll have ever seen.”
The Meb Faber Show
#406 — Dylan Grice, Calderwood Capital — Popular Delusions, The End of Duration & Esoteric Investment Opportunities. Dylan Grice is the co-founder of Calderwood Capital, a hedge fund boutique specializing in orthogonal, niche and capacity-constrained hedge-fund strategies, and the author of Popular Delusions. This episode began by talking about the end of duration and the headwinds that long-duration assets like stocks, bonds, private equity and real estate face going forward. That led to discussion about why Dylan loves the idea of the cockroach portfolio and what a creature that’s survived over 350 million years can teach us about portfolio construction. At the end of the episode, Dylan talked about some esoteric strategies, including mortgage prepayments, cat bonds, uranium and energy (both of which he wrote about a few years ago), and even SPACs. [April 11, 2022–63 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Website Link
#407 — Marc Chaikin, Chaikin Analytics — A Quantamental Approach To Investing. Marc Chaikin is a 50-year Wall Street veteran and the founder of Chaikin Analytics. This episode began with Marc’s early career and what led him to have an approach today that combines both fundamentals and technicals. He explains his 20-factor model, and how it urged him to buy Overstock and Wayfair early in the pandemic. Then, Marc walked through what industries he’s bullish on today, including energy, financials, and aerospace and defense. [April 13, 2022–37 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Google | Website Link
Good investing,Meb Fabertheideafarm.com