Trade Walls: Global Risk Recalculated

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Research

Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs (13 pages)

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices by creating custom price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes across product categories and trading partners. It is updated through April 24, 2025.

Janus Henderson Investors - Widening the Lens: Revisiting the Case for Non-U.S. Stocks  (6 pages)

While US stocks have outperformed over the past decade, Janus Henderson believes the valuation gap creates room for upside and an opportunity to diversify equity holdings. They also state that “each year for the past decade, an average of 82 of the top-100 performing stocks in the MSCI All Country World Index were headquartered outside the U.S.”

BlackRock - Investing alongside change (11 pages)

Rick Rieder shares the top 10 things to consider today:

1. Tariffs can continue to drive market volatility.

2. A focus on lower rates is understandable with the growing uncertainty of where the debt is going. The administration will want to ensure rates do not move higher in reaction to tariff policy. After some of the largest moves higher in US Rates of the last 50 years, they will likely move forward with this front-of mind.

3. The US is a largely domestic, services-oriented economy.

4. Federal spending has been a large contributor to overall economic activity over recent years. The magnitude of cuts here will be important to watch.

5. Employment growth has largely been driven by healthcare, education, and immigration – these three areas are under pressure today and represent a risk to the data to watch closely going forward.

6. Higher interest rates have contributed to the housing affordability crisis, particularly for the lower 50% of income earners.

7. Despite significant progress in reducing post-pandemic inflation, inflation remains persistently high above the Fed's target, creating challenges for the Fed.

8. The range of growth outcomes is increasingly uncertain, with stagflation becoming a more significant risk.

9. We like being a lender in Europe.

10. Today asset allocation in portfolios should look to optimize return, balance, and risk. Income still wins.

Bonus Content

Bridgewater Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares her outlook on the economic and market environment (44 minutes). Link

Pitchbook published their 1Q 2025 review of the US venture capital ecosystem. Link

Jason Zweig explains why there will never be another Warren Buffett. Link

Market cap-weighted indices have been beneficial for the average investor, but are these same investors prepared if we enter another lost decade like the ones that transpired after past incidents of market concentration? Link

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