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Who’s Buying, Who’s Selling, and Who’s in Trouble?
+ Warren Buffett, Michael Mauboussin, Brad Setser, Mario Draghi, Peter Oppenheimer & More!
The Idea Farm
March 02, 2025
Together With
“You can close your eyes and cross a four-lane highway, but even if you get to the other side, you’re still an idiot.”
Research
Warren Buffett’s annual letter touches on the performance of US & Japanese investments, the rationale behind Berkshire’s investments and acquisitions, and more.
Berkshire last year made four payments to the IRS that totaled $26.8 billion. That’s about 5% of what all of corporate America paid.
Vanguard shares what allocators are buying and selling across more than 100 sub-asset classes, durations, styles, sectors and thematic investment strategies.
Morgan Stanley - Probabilities and Payoffs (49 pages)
Michael Mauboussin explains how quantifying scenario probabilities and mapping them to potential payoffs can improve investment strategies.
Lazard's Sovereign Advisory team, which has served as the sole financial advisor to most countries facing debt distress since 2020, shares what they’ve learned from helping countries navigate the shocks of COVID-19, the Russia/Ukraine war and global monetary tightening.
Bonus Content
What if you could find an investment that pays you to invest? Last year, 34 ETFs earned a higher securities-lending return than their annual fee. Link
Larry Swedroe says dividends are just a tax-inefficient way to return capital to shareholders, and shareholder yield matters more than dividends. Link
Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, argues that high internal barriers and regulatory hurdles are far more damaging for European growth than anything America might impose. Link
J.P. Morgan Asset Management updated their Guide to ETFs. Link
Brad Setser & Josh Younger wrote a two part piece about global finance and how modern banks intermediate in complex ways. Part I; Part II
Invest in the Future of Farming with Farmland LP
If you’re an advisor looking for real diversification, here’s a question: What’s been one of the most consistent, inflation-beating investments for the past 30 years?
Farmland.
According to the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), in the past 33 years, farmland has delivered over 10% annualized returns with less than 7% volatility—lower than stocks, bonds, and commercial real estate. And yet, less than 3% of U.S. farmland is institutionally owned.
That’s where Farmland LP comes in. They take high-quality farmland and convert it to organic and regenerative agriculture, potentially increasing land values and cash flow.
They’re hosting a webinar for RIAs on March 12 to break down why farmland is gaining traction as an alternative investment, how it fits into client portfolios, and how you can get exposure to farmland through their Fund III.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Podcasts
 11/22/2024 - 108 minutes | Professors Alex Tabarrok and Scott Duke Kominers separate the hype from the reality of prediction markets and where crypto and blockchain come in. |
 12/10/24 - 41 minutes | Rober is a former NASA engineer and now runs YouTube’s most followed science channel. He shares his storytelling techniques and how to apply the scientific method to everyday life. |
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer about long-term equity cycles and where he sees opportunities in equity markets. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
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