Roger Ibbotson marks the centennial of the Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation dataset with a collection of research on long run capital market returns. Contributors examine equity and bond risk premiums, global returns stretching back centuries, the rise and fall of Treasury yields and how to model future wealth.
Exponential Wealth: Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns
CFA Institute
Roger Ibbotson
Research
372 Pages
Key Takeaways
Small Caps Led: $1 in small caps in 1926 grew to $32,425 by 2025, compounding at 10.9% versus 10.1% for large caps.
Real Wealth Gap: After inflation, $1 in large caps grew to about $814 while long term Treasury bonds reached only about $6.50.
The Bond Mountain: 20 year Treasury yields climbed to nearly 14% by 1981, then declined for four decades before rebounding near 5% by 2025.
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