Notes From the Road: The coming wall of issuance, commodities and TIPS

AllianceBernstein

Inigo Fraser Jenkins

Research

12 Pages

AllianceBernstein summarizes recurring investor questions from recent North America and Europe meetings. The note argues mega cap IPO issuance may raise volatility, while commodities, TIPS and real assets deserve larger strategic roles as inflation volatility and supply chain risks rise.

Key Takeaways

Buybacks Still Offset: New mega cap IPO floats may be only about one tenth of buyback run rate, keeping net equity supply shrinking.
Real Assets Rise: AB favors commodities and TIPS as complementary inflation hedges, with US net buyback yield still above 1% of market cap.
Equity Forecast Holds: AB’s US 10 year real equity return forecast is 4.0% per year, built from 1.0% dividend yield, 1.3% buybacks, 2.2% growth and negative 0.5% revaluation.
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