Peaks

IR&M

Alexander Ineichen

Research

33 Pages

Ineichen Research & Management examines how market peaks form by comparing 2000 and 2007 with 2017 conditions. The paper argues that yield curve inversions, weakening Financials, and “exponential” price moves matter more than sensational crash forecasts, while warning that ETF proliferation may echo past excesses.

Key Takeaways

Yield Curve Signals: The US yield curve inverted 6 weeks before the Nasdaq peak in 2000, while Dow Jones Transport momentum turned negative 28 weeks earlier.
Financials Matter Early: Long term Financials momentum turned negative 10 weeks before the 2000 Nasdaq peak, reinforcing concerns that weak banks often precede broader market stress.
Bubble Dynamics Repeat: The Nasdaq surged 30% in the final 6 weeks before peaking in 2000, while the S&P 500 climbed 14.5% within 4 weeks.
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