July 31, 2022

Sanctions are Crippling Russia’s Economy

“Risk is what’s left over when you think you’ve thought of everything.” –  Morgan Housel RESEARCH Sonnenfeld et al. – Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy (118 pages) One of the first academic papers with an analysis of Russia’s […]
July 24, 2022

1,750x Investment

“There is nothing so unstable as a stabilized price level.” –  Jim Grant RESEARCH DoubleLine – Finding a Bottom in Equities (9 pages) DoubleLine’s Macro Asset Allocation Team covers drawdowns, bear markets, and some thoughts on potential paths forward for equities. AngelList […]
July 17, 2022

Exposing a $25b Fraud

“With every investment we become richer or wiser, never both.” – Bill Duhamel RESEARCH Robeco – Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes (38 pages) A look at performance and factors across inflation regimes going back to 1875. Source: Robeco KKR – […]
July 12, 2022

Global Valuation Updates!

For new subscribers, you may not be aware that we’ll share the global stock market valuations each quarter. You can view all prior quarterly updates here. Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates Median CAPE Ratio: 15 25% cheapest: 10 25% most expensive: 25 […]
July 10, 2022

The Mental Keys of Trading

“In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” – J.P. Morgan RESEARCH AQR – The Stock/Bond Correlation (18 pages) Historical perspective on the stock/bond correlation, and what the implications of a change in that relationship might mean. J.P. Morgan – […]
July 3, 2022

Wealth Destruction

“The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know, and which I’ve used every cycle when I have invested.” – Stanley Druckenmiller RESEARCH Totem Macro – Wealth Preservation (13 pages) Whitney Baker’s April research piece focuses on the big picture […]
June 26, 2022

Paul Volcker is A False God

“I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don’t want to bad mouth astrologers.” – Eugene Fama RESEARCH Clocktower Group – False Narratives Will Cost You Money (29 pages) Market narratives, inflation, the dollar rally, and why Paul Volcker is a […]
June 18, 2022

Your Portfolio Needs First Responders

“Conventional wisdom results in conventional returns.” – Mario Gabelli RESEARCH SSGA – PriceStats Analysis: From Bad to Worse (4 pages) State Street on inflation, the ECB’s dilemma, and the differential between fuel price and consumer food price inflation in emerging markets. […]
June 16, 2022

Newsletter Sampler: Popular Delusions by Calderwood Capital

NEWSLETTER SAMPLER Interested in learning about other great investing newsletters? Check out  Name: Popular Delusions by Calderwood Capital Frequency: Semi-monthly Audience: Professional investors & HNW individuals Model: Paid Author(s): Dylan Grice & Tim Bergin Topics: Macro and deep dives into specialist […]
June 12, 2022

ESG is Bullsh*t

“Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows.”  – Jim Rogers RESEARCH   LongTail Alpha – Trend-Following Research Series Part 2: Rising Rates and Trend-Following (12 pages) LongTail Alpha on trend-following across […]
June 5, 2022

Resource Stocks, Conservative Investing, Ed Thorp, Cliff Asness

“Every market I’ve seen eventually punishes clever investors and rewards patient ones.” – Naval Ravikant RESEARCH Who Need TIPS When You’ve Got Friends Like This? – 9 pages GMO’s 1Q22 quarterly letter gets into inflation, commodity prices, and opportunities in resource equities. […]
June 2, 2022

Newsletter Sampler: 3Fourteen Research

NEWSLETTER SAMPLER Interested in learning about other great investing newsletters? Check out  Name: 3Fourteen Research Frequency: Weekly research reports Author(s): Warren Pies & Fernando Vidal Topics: Data-driven macro research Overview: 3Fourteen is a data-driven macro research firm. They combine their qualitative macro/real […]
May 29, 2022

Bridgewater, Paul Graham, Tyler Cowen, Grantham, Energy

“Excellence for most of us blossoms and flourishes for only a brief flicker of time. Either because of human fragility, maturation, or simple outright exhaustion, it’s difficult to perform at a crescendo for an extended period.” – Bill Gross Looking […]
May 22, 2022

Inflation Hedges, Japanese Value, Elon, Andreessen

“I have never interviewed a money manager who told you he’d never made a mistake, and a lot of them do, who didn‘t stink. Every great money manager I’ve ever met, all they want to talk about is their mistakes. […]
May 15, 2022

Private Markets, Innovation, Drobny, Asness, Verdad

“Investors tend to demand more performance consistency than is feasible in competitive markets, often resulting in ill-timed capitulations.” – Antti Ilmanen Looking for more than just dividends? Cambria’s Shareholder Yield ETF, SYLD goes beyond dividends to include buybacks and debt […]