July 31, 2022
“Risk is what’s left over when you think you’ve thought of everything.” – Morgan Housel RESEARCH Sonnenfeld et al. – Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy (118 pages) One of the first academic papers with an analysis of Russia’s […]
July 24, 2022
“There is nothing so unstable as a stabilized price level.” – Jim Grant RESEARCH DoubleLine – Finding a Bottom in Equities (9 pages) DoubleLine’s Macro Asset Allocation Team covers drawdowns, bear markets, and some thoughts on potential paths forward for equities. AngelList […]
July 17, 2022
“With every investment we become richer or wiser, never both.” – Bill Duhamel RESEARCH Robeco – Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes (38 pages) A look at performance and factors across inflation regimes going back to 1875. Source: Robeco KKR – […]
July 12, 2022
For new subscribers, you may not be aware that we’ll share the global stock market valuations each quarter. You can view all prior quarterly updates here. Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates Median CAPE Ratio: 15 25% cheapest: 10 25% most expensive: 25 […]
July 10, 2022
“In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” – J.P. Morgan RESEARCH AQR – The Stock/Bond Correlation (18 pages) Historical perspective on the stock/bond correlation, and what the implications of a change in that relationship might mean. J.P. Morgan – […]
July 3, 2022
“The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know, and which I’ve used every cycle when I have invested.” – Stanley Druckenmiller RESEARCH Totem Macro – Wealth Preservation (13 pages) Whitney Baker’s April research piece focuses on the big picture […]
June 26, 2022
“I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don’t want to bad mouth astrologers.” – Eugene Fama RESEARCH Clocktower Group – False Narratives Will Cost You Money (29 pages) Market narratives, inflation, the dollar rally, and why Paul Volcker is a […]
June 18, 2022
“Conventional wisdom results in conventional returns.” – Mario Gabelli RESEARCH SSGA – PriceStats Analysis: From Bad to Worse (4 pages) State Street on inflation, the ECB’s dilemma, and the differential between fuel price and consumer food price inflation in emerging markets. […]
June 12, 2022
“Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows.” – Jim Rogers RESEARCH LongTail Alpha – Trend-Following Research Series Part 2: Rising Rates and Trend-Following (12 pages) LongTail Alpha on trend-following across […]
June 5, 2022
“Every market I’ve seen eventually punishes clever investors and rewards patient ones.” – Naval Ravikant RESEARCH Who Need TIPS When You’ve Got Friends Like This? – 9 pages GMO’s 1Q22 quarterly letter gets into inflation, commodity prices, and opportunities in resource equities. […]
May 29, 2022
“Excellence for most of us blossoms and flourishes for only a brief flicker of time. Either because of human fragility, maturation, or simple outright exhaustion, it’s difficult to perform at a crescendo for an extended period.” – Bill Gross Looking […]
May 22, 2022
“I have never interviewed a money manager who told you he’d never made a mistake, and a lot of them do, who didn‘t stink. Every great money manager I’ve ever met, all they want to talk about is their mistakes. […]
May 15, 2022
“Investors tend to demand more performance consistency than is feasible in competitive markets, often resulting in ill-timed capitulations.” – Antti Ilmanen Looking for more than just dividends? Cambria’s Shareholder Yield ETF, SYLD goes beyond dividends to include buybacks and debt […]