October 21, 2014
I sat on a panel with Vineer at a conference and found him to be quite intelligent in our wide ranging discussion. Below is a fun new paper from PIMCO on trendfollowing(!) in various interest rate environments. Below is a […]
October 17, 2014
Research Affiliates just launched a Capital Assets Forecast Portal – and it is awesome. Shiller CAPEs, fixed income, and more all with cool graphics….No download, just a picture. Go to the website and spend some time…one of the cooler resources of […]
October 15, 2014
Great news! I partnered up with Ned Davis to build all the cyclically adjusted metrics and they are letting me send them out…I sorted them based on the average across all four metrics in the second table.. I also included […]
October 10, 2014
I read everything CSFB puts out here, and so should you. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF The Road to 2030 Website https://www.credit-suisse.com/us/en/news-and-expertise/research/credit-suisse-research-institute/publications.html
October 7, 2014
I have been traveling in Asia (Bhutan!), and the CAPE updates should follow soon. However, in the meantime I am going to pass along a simply terrific new resource. Farm subs should remember a piece I sent out a few weeks ago […]
October 4, 2014
I thought I had sent this piece out this summer but I didn’t see it in the archives. You know I love it of course, but it drills down an important point – when using buybacks, also sorting on value […]
October 2, 2014
This is the last report of the Mendillo era at Harvard. I have to think the institutional stampede into, and now out of, commodities could signal a good long term buying opportunity at some point. But if you know me, […]
September 29, 2014
I’m off to Asia, and have updated the archives up to about two weeks ago. Will send out the quarterly CAPE valuations in a few days. I’m hoping NDR will allow me to send CAPD, CAPCF, and CAPB too… Below […]
September 22, 2014
We’ve featured a few of Novus’s pieces in the past. The spend a lot of time with public filings, 13F research, and hedge funds. Lots of fun reads on their site but this one focuses on the activists… Chart then […]
September 22, 2014
A reader passed along this piece from a German shop called Star Capital. You will know why I like it once you read it. A handful of charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Predicting Stock Market Returns Website http://www.starcapital.de
September 16, 2014
I was going to write that this was a “must read”, but by definition the whole point of The Idea Farm is to send only ‘must reads”, so maybe this is extra musty. Read all 100+ pages, it is worth […]
September 14, 2014
We featured some publications from Pantheon Macro a year or so ago, here are four more. First, a US and Euro Economic Monitor, followed by a Chartbook for each. Chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs US Chartbook, Monitor Euro Chartbook, Montior Website http://www.pantheonmacro.com/
September 9, 2014
This is a really great study. Well worth your time. Although it is really strange they never reference Longboard’s study from a few years ago, “The Capitalism Distribution“. Charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Agony and Ecstasy Website https://www.chase.com/content/dam/privatebanking/en/mobile/documents/eotm/eotm_2014_09_02_agonyescstasy.pdf
September 2, 2014
People loved the last chart, and a few requested actual values, so here you go! (CAPE was from 6/30, rest are current.) —- —- Website http://www.cambriafunds.com
August 30, 2014
Here is a little proprietary research we did with the help of Ned Davis. Market participants love focusing on the details while often avoiding the greater picture. And almost always they find ways to justify whatever market stance they have. […]