October 15, 2014

All the CAPs in the World

Great news!  I partnered up with Ned Davis to build all the cyclically adjusted metrics and they are letting me send them out…I sorted them based on the average across all four metrics in the second table.. I also included […]
October 10, 2014

Road to 2030

I read everything CSFB puts out here, and so should you. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF The Road to 2030 Website https://www.credit-suisse.com/us/en/news-and-expertise/research/credit-suisse-research-institute/publications.html
October 7, 2014

CAPE Values

I have been traveling in Asia (Bhutan!), and the CAPE updates should follow soon.  However, in the meantime I am going to pass along a simply terrific new resource. Farm subs should remember a piece I sent out a few weeks ago […]
October 4, 2014

The Power

I thought I had sent this piece out this summer but I didn’t see it in the archives.  You know I love it of course, but it drills down an important point – when using buybacks, also sorting on value […]
October 2, 2014

Ivy Portfolios

This is the last report of the Mendillo era at Harvard.  I have to think the institutional stampede into, and now out of, commodities could signal a good long term buying opportunity at some point.  But if you know me, […]
September 29, 2014

Heavily Invested

I’m off to Asia, and have updated the archives up to about two weeks ago.  Will send out the quarterly CAPE valuations in a few days.  I’m hoping NDR will allow me to send CAPD, CAPCF, and CAPB too… Below […]
September 22, 2014


We’ve featured a few of Novus’s pieces in the past.  The spend a lot of time with public filings, 13F research, and hedge funds.  Lots of fun reads on their site but this one focuses on the activists… Chart then […]
September 22, 2014


A reader passed along this piece from a German shop called Star Capital.  You will know why I like it once you read it. A handful of charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Predicting Stock Market Returns Website http://www.starcapital.de
September 16, 2014

DB on Valuations, Real Rates, and the Bond Bubble

I was going to write that this was a “must read”, but by definition the whole point of The Idea Farm is to send only ‘must reads”, so maybe this is extra musty.  Read all 100+ pages, it is worth […]
September 14, 2014

US & Europe

We featured some publications from Pantheon Macro a year or so ago, here are four more. First, a US and Euro Economic Monitor, followed by a Chartbook for each. Chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs US Chartbook, Monitor Euro Chartbook, Montior  Website http://www.pantheonmacro.com/
September 9, 2014

Capitalism Distribution

This is a really great study.  Well worth your time. Although it is really strange they never reference Longboard’s study from a few years ago, “The Capitalism Distribution“. Charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Agony and Ecstasy  Website https://www.chase.com/content/dam/privatebanking/en/mobile/documents/eotm/eotm_2014_09_02_agonyescstasy.pdf
September 2, 2014

Actual Values

People loved the last chart, and a few requested actual values, so here you go!  (CAPE was from 6/30, rest are current.) —- —- Website http://www.cambriafunds.com
August 30, 2014

Countries Ranked by Valuation

Here is a little proprietary research we did with the help of Ned Davis.  Market participants love focusing on the details while often avoiding the greater picture.  And almost always they find ways to justify whatever market stance they have. […]
August 27, 2014

Did you buy the banks in 2009?

First housekeeping – thanks for all the responses to my request for suggestions to The Idea Farm.  In general, people love the service, prefer more emails to less, and like the idea of hedge fund profiles.  I’ve hired a great […]
August 21, 2014


This is a nicely done piece by John Hancock.  Fun to flip through all the charts The chart then download: —- —- Download PDFs Market Intelligence Website http://www.jhinvestments.com/