Century of Trends

This was one of the first pieces we sent out to the Farm, now updated through 2016…

Abstract, chart, then downloads…

In this article, the authors study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1880, extending the existing evidence by more than 100 years using a novel data set. They find that in each decade since 1880, time series momentum has delivered positive average returns with low correlations to traditional asset classes. Further, time-series momentum has performed well in 8 out of 10 of the largest crisis periods over the century, defined as the largest drawdowns for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Lastly, time series momentum has performed well across different macro environments, including recessions and booms, war and peacetime, highand low-interest rate regimes, and high- and low-inflation periods.


Link to Download

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing