CRE in Focus
“Good short-sellers have something in the DNA. Or maybe we were dropped on our heads as babies.”
– Jim Chanos
RESEARCH
J.P. Morgan – Are banks vulnerable to a crisis in commercial real estate? (11 pages)
J.P. Morgan looks at how vulnerable regional banks’ are to the commercial real estate sector. They note the office sector faces its own set of challenges, but do not believe that potential losses within the office sector are likely to destabilize regional banks. However, they believe the small bank lending channel more generally does represent a macro risk, as tighter lending standards and profitability challenges in the banking sector could reduce available financing and raise the cost for small and medium sized businesses.
Bridgewater – An Update from Our CIOs: The Tightening Cycle Is Beginning to Bite (17 pages)
Bridgewater’s Co-CIOs explain why major economies are far from equilibrium conditions, especially in the West. They share what assets they favor given the current conditions, and why they believe the dollar is vulnerable as relative conditions and policies reverse.
Source: Bridgewater. Published on April 14, 2023
Jason Zweig shares the seven virtues of great investors: curiosity, skepticism, independence, humility, discipline, patience, & courage. Link
Read the full transcript of Becky Quick’s recent conversation with Warren Buffett. Link
Morgan Housel writes about mental liquidity: the ability to quickly abandon previous beliefs when the world changes or when you come across new information.Link
A long read about the unravelling of Wirecard, the largest fraud in German history, whose COO embezzled tens of millions of dollars and rented a secret mansion near the Russian consulate in Munich, where he held meetings with spies and government officials.Link
John Authers’ looks at factor investing, moneyball, and maintaining a competitive edge. Link
SPONSORED BY ACRETRADER
An Investment That’s Historically Beaten Inflation
Let’s talk about appreciation.
Not the pat-on-the-back kind—we mean long-term value appreciation of a hard asset that may not be on your radar yet.
According to USDA data, farmland has appreciated at an average rate of 5.9% per year since 1970. And that’s just the underlying land value. Farmland investments often produce annual income in the form of rent or revenue share with a farmer.
Put those together and you get an average annual return of 10.9% from 1970 to 2021, as measured by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries.
What’s behind this performance?
- Farmland is a tangible asset that produces human necessities.
- Its supply is limited, while our need for its products continues to grow.
- Farmland values historically track closely with inflation.
Its supply is limited, while our need for its products continues to grow.
Farmland values historically track closely with inflation.
If you’re looking for a historically consistent alternative investment, AcreTrader believes farmland’s track record is worth considering. Your portfolio might appreciate it!
Explore farmland investing with AcreTrader
PODCASTS
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Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management
[4/10/23 – 69 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google
Niederhoffer explains how he implements ideas from Daniel Kahneman and Daniel Gilbert into his trading strategy, why trend-follower serves as a great diversifier to stocks and bonds, how he handles trend reversals, and more.
The Bank Panic Is Already Over (Here’s Why) | John Maxfield
[4/4/23 – 87 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google
Banking specialist John Maxfield walks through the history of bank panics, his take on what happened with Silicon Valley Bank, and why he believes the recent banking panic in the U.S. is over.
Robert Koenigsberger on What Everyone Gets Wrong About Emerging Markets
[4/14/23 – 48 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google
Koenigsberger explains his multi asset approach to investing in emerging markets, pushes back on the idea that all emerging market countries should be bucketed together, and gives his thoughts on the current landscape for emerging markets.
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