Global Valuation Updates!

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates

Median CAPE Ratio: 18
25% cheapest: 14
25% most expensive: 32

Average of Foreign Developed: 24
Average of Foreign Emerging 15

We’ve mentioned this note in every update but bears repeating.  We use the MSCI Investable Market Indices below, but MSCI also calculates their Standard Indices too.  IMI includes more companies and in general is more representative of the entire market.  It really makes no difference for any of the countries except the very smallest ones, such as Greece and Egypt.  For both series the CAPE ratios are almost always near identical.

So, this is one reason we have always used a valuation composite across the variables below.  If one is giving a screwy result, or perhaps a market has a structural bias to one variable, we want to average it out.  So, in this case Greece is cheap on other metrics just not on CAPE.

Here it is in Excel too.

MSCI Investable Market Indices
CAPE CAPD CAPCF CAPB Average Rank Dev or Emerging Real Drawdown %
Russia 8.1 24.8 5 1 3 E -58.5
Chile 11.5 22.3 6.1 1 4 E -51.26
Poland 11.5 27.9 5.1 1.1 6 E -40.19
Egypt 10.2 26.5 5.7 1.2 6 E -70.5
Turkey 8.3 29.3 6.4 1.1 8 E -51.03
Colombia 13.1 24.8 7.6 1.1 8 E -32.74
Spain 15.6 20.2 6.7 1.2 9 D -26.49
Czech Republic 14.9 17.8 6.3 1.6 10 E -17.56
Singapore 13.3 24 10.4 1.2 12 D -8.14
Brazil 14.8 26 8.5 1.6 13 E -24.1
Portugal 23.6 22.6 6 1.5 13 D -48.95
Malaysia 14.8 28 9.4 1.5 14 E -8.43
Greece -2.4 30 5 0.5 16 E -96.21
U.K. 15.9 26.8 8.7 1.8 16 D -2.02
Hong Kong 14.5 33.6 10.4 1.2 16 D -16.19
Peru 13 30.3 12.2 1.6 17 E -42.55
Italy 23.9 37.3 6.8 1.3 20 D -25.69
Austria 18 48.4 7.8 1.4 20 D -25.79
Hungary 15.7 67 6 1.7 20 E -11.73
Norway 19.6 32.1 8.5 1.9 20 D -3.57
China 13.4 44.7 10.3 1.7 20 E -34.68
Thailand 16.6 32.7 9.7 2 22 E -16.12
Korea 17 85.1 8.7 1.5 23 D -10.66
South Africa 17.4 32.4 11.2 2.1 24 E -10.27
Indonesia 16.1 37.2 10.2 2.3 24 E -17.86
Germany 19.8 43.2 9.5 2 24 D -2.75
Philippines 16.4 51.5 10.4 1.9 26 E -42.8
Mexico 19.8 48.3 9.3 2.2 26 E -5.62
Belgium 21.5 34.7 12.6 1.9 26 D -11.03
Australia 21.1 28.7 13.9 2.3 27 D -0.96
Japan 22.5 65 11.2 1.7 29 D -5.47
Canada 25.3 43.4 13 2.3 31 D -2.87
France 26.4 46.4 13 2.2 31 D -0.57
New Zealand 27.1 35.5 15 2.7 32 D -14.43
Israel 22.2 61 14 2.2 32 D -0.74
Finland 29.1 36.8 16.2 2.8 33 D -29.83
Taiwan 29.6 50.9 16.6 3.3 36 E -0.1
Sweden 26.8 56 19.3 3.6 37 D 0
Switzerland 30.2 48.8 21.9 3.8 38 D -0.67
Ireland 34.6 87.4 19.4 2.6 39 D -7.46
Netherlands 35.3 75.3 22.1 3.5 40 D -7.09
India 33.3 118.3 21.1 4.2 41 E -6.26
U.S. 38.8 93.5 23.6 5.2 43 D -0.55
Denmark 44.6 107.3 29.5 6.5 44 D -2.5
US Global
Communication Services 28.3 31.6
Discretionary 45.6 18.7
Energy 23.1 18.8
Financials 21 18.7
Health Care 36.9 21.1
Industrials 30.3 25.2
IT 55.7 12.7
Materials 32.7 23.3
Staples 26.5 15.6
Utilities 26.1 16.8 `

Good investing,
Meb Faber
theideafarm.com