Global Valuation Updates!

For new subscribers, you may not be aware that we’ll share the global stock market valuations each quarter. You can view all prior quarterly updates here.

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates

Median CAPE Ratio: 15
25% cheapest: 10
25% most expensive: 24

Average of Foreign Developed: 18
Average of Foreign Emerging: 13

We’ve mentioned this note in every update but bears repeating.  We use the MSCI Investable Market Indices below, but MSCI also calculates their Standard Indices too.  IMI includes more companies and in general is more representative of the entire market.  It really makes no difference for any of the countries except the very smallest ones, such as Greece and Egypt.  For both series the CAPE ratios are almost always near identical.

So, this is one reason we have always used a valuation composite across the variables below.  If one is giving a screwy result, or perhaps a market has a structural bias to one variable, we want to average it out.

Since we get asked this question a lot, in addition to The Idea Farm, here are a few great free resources for global stock market valuations…

1. Research Affiliates
2. Barclays
3. Professor Shiller
4. Professors French & Fama
5. Professor Damodaran

A few great paid choices include Global Financial Data and Ned Davis Research. Let us know if we’re missing any!

MSCI Investable Market Indices 

CAPE CAPD CAPCF CAPB Average Rank Dev or Emerging Real Drawdown %
Poland 6.5 16.3 2.8 0.6 2 E -66.68
Egypt 6.8 19 4 0.8 3 E -79.3
Colombia 9.5 19 5.3 0.8 6 E -48.03
Czech Republic 11.7 14.2 5 1.3 9 E -33.97
Spain 12.8 17.4 5.7 1 10 D -39.35
Austria 10.8 29.7 4.9 0.9 11 D -51.21
Hungary 8.2 38.8 3.2 0.9 11 E -47.47
Singapore 11.1 19.3 8.7 0.9 12 D -24.76
Italy 15.9 25.7 4.8 0.9 13 D -46.45
Hong Kong 11.4 25.6 8.1 0.9 13 D -33.62
Chile 12.7 23.5 6.9 1.2 14 E -46.4
Turkey 8.6 31.6 6.8 1.2 14 E -46.18
Germany 12.5 27.1 5.9 1.2 14 D -36.35
China 9.3 30.9 7.3 1.1 14 E -54.77
Malaysia 12.8 23.7 8 1.2 16 E -19.72
U.K. 13.7 22.6 7.4 1.5 17 D -14.3
Brazil 13 22.2 7.5 1.5 17 E -23.73
Korea 11.2 54.5 5.8 1 17 D -38.85
Portugal 21.7 21.4 5.6 1.4 18 D -53.46
Greece -3.2 32.5 4.6 0.5 19 E -96.75
Peru 11.5 26.1 10.8 1.4 20 E -50.16
Belgium 15.2 25.7 9.3 1.4 20 D -32.99
Norway 16.5 26.6 7.1 1.6 21 D -18.08
South Africa 14.2 26.9 9.1 1.7 23 E -22.18
Philippines 12.8 40.4 8 1.4 23 E -55.27
Mexico 15.4 36.2 7.3 1.7 25 E -23.27
Thailand 15.5 30.2 8.9 1.8 25 E -20.66
Australia 17.2 23.2 11.3 1.9 27 D -15.66
France 19.8 35.2 9.8 1.6 29 D -24.17
Japan 18.6 54.7 9.6 1.5 30 D -13.67
Canada 20 34.9 10.5 1.9 31 D -19.06
Finland 21 27.1 11.9 2.1 31 D -47.21
Israel 16.8 47.5 10.8 1.7 31 D -21.56
Sweden 16.3 34.7 11.9 2.2 32 D -34.94
Taiwan 19 34.3 11 2.2 32 E -28.96
New Zealand 21.6 28.5 12.1 2.1 32 D -29.65
Indonesia 17 38.7 10.4 2.4 32 E -12.43
Netherlands 20.4 44.5 13.1 2.1 36 D -42.98
Ireland 21.6 58.9 12.9 1.8 37 D -34.77
Switzerland 21.9 36 15.8 2.8 38 D -23.43
U.S. 26 63.1 16 3.6 41 D -29.92
India 30.8 106.9 19.5 3.9 42 E -12.34
Denmark 30.8 75 20.9 4.8 43 D -24.15
Russia E -100

 

Want to share this with someone? Click here

Did someone forward this to you and you’d like to subscribe? Click here