We’re in a Vibecession

“To be an investor is to live constantly at the intersection of story and uncertainty.”

–  Daniel S. Loeb


3Fourteen Research – Dipping a Toe in the Water (13 pages)

This piece follows up on what we shared from 3Fourteen Research back in June (here). They look at some of their “Market Bottom Watchlist” items and why it may be time to put some capital to work. Plus, great information on analyst estimates below.

During normal economic times, analysts are roughly correct with their forward earnings predictions. However, at economic inflection points, estimates miss the mark badly. In the chart, we highlight recessions (shaded blue). Heading into a recession, analyst estimates overshoot the target. Coming out of a recession, analysts are too slow to boost forward earnings estimates.

Bonus Content

Roger Lowenstein takes issue with the new 1% tax on corporate buybacks. Link

Morgan Housel on internal vs. external benchmarks. Link

John Rekenthaler praising Wall Street. Link

Cliff Asness wondering if everyone is cray-cray. Link

Google searches for firewood in Germany have soared recently. Link

Kyla Scanlon on why we’re in a “vibecession.” Link

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1 (2021, December 13). Farmland Draws Investor Interest With Inflation Running Hot Source: Bloomberg.
3 Source: (2022, August 11). Morningstar. The annualized return for the NCREIF Index is calculated based on the published Index levels from 3/31/91 to 3/31/22.Index performance is presented for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) published the NCREIF Farmland Index, a quarterly time series composite return measure of investment performance of a large pool of individual farmland properties acquired in the private market for investment purposes only. Investments cannot be made in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, trading costs or other expenses.


Harley Bassman Has a Strong Message for Young Traders
[7/27/22 — 39 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google

Bassman shares why investing based on spreadsheets instead of common sense usually leads to issues, why he should’ve listened to Steve Eisman before the GFC, and other lessons from his 40+ year career in finance.





From The Episode:
“Bad guys in the S&L crisis…the bad guys went to jail, which is a good thing. This time, the bad guys did not, and by the way, they should have. My boss at Merrill Lynch, he definitely should’ve been in the slammer.”

Michael Santoli: Navigating Through a Foggy Market Outlook
[8/9/22 – 53 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google

CNBC commentator Michael Santoli touches on corporate profitability, rising interest rates and inflation, and the set up for the market for the rest of the year.






From The Episode:
“The advantage the individual has always had is time-horizon arbitrage.  Take advantage of the fact that you don’t actually get marked to market every day.”


Andrew Wilkinson: Entrepreneurial Insights
[7/26/22 – 75 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google

Investor & businessman Andrer Wilkinson shares lessons from building 40 businesses, how he became to be very intentional with his money and time, and how he learned to avoid the urge to continuously want more. 





From The Episode:
“…I woke up on August 1st, I made hundreds of millions of dollars that year, taken a company public, I’d met all my business idols, had a great life, two healthy kids, you name it, and I was miserable.”

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