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Overview: The MacroTourist is a newsletter that offers insights gained from Kevin Muir’s decades of proprietary trading experience, while providing a real-time look into what he is trading for his own account. Other topics covered include actionable ideas, individual stock commentary, access to a private Twitter feed, daily summary email, and Bloomberg chart access.
He prides himself on taking a unique view on markets that focuses not on what should be, but rather what will be. There is no bearish or bullish slant. He just tries best to analyze situations and highlight the best risk/reward trading and investing opportunities.
One of his favorite tag lines for describing himself is, “all I bring to the party is 25 years of mistakes.” He tries to share those experiences with you so that you won’t have to make the same mistakes. Along the way I am sure to make some new ones as well, but that’s part of the game.
Some key takeaways from the piece:
“For the first time since 1981, there has been a new high in the Fed’s hiking cycle as the Federal Reserve recently raised the Fed Funds rate to 4.375%. The cycle of lower rates has been broken and the bond bull market has died, but many investors don’t yet believe it.”
“Just like in the 1980s when investors were slow to accept that run-away inflation was no longer a problem, today’s investors are equally slow to accept that the days of benign inflation have passed. At the start of this generational bond bull market, few believed it had begun. Today, few believe it has ended.”
“During the 1980s and 1990s, long duration bond holders achieved high “real returns” because investors were reluctant to accept that inflation had been tamed. The opposite scenario could play out for the 2020s. This decade could see investors paying too much for bonds, assuming inflation will return to the pre-COVID period. In that environment, investors would relegate themselves to years of poor—even negative— “real returns.”
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Meb Faber & The Idea Farm Team