September 4, 2022

Winter is Coming in Europe

“Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a number.” – James Montier RESEARCH Bridgewater – Europe’s Stagflation is Different in Kind and Much Harder to Remedy (12 pages) Bridgewater discusses Europe’s energy situation, inflation, and some of the policy challenges ahead. […]
August 28, 2022

Carried interest won’t die

“The definition of a true partner is someone who shares your level of risk.” –  Sam Zell RESEARCH O’Shaughnessy Asset Management – Why Fundamentals Matter (9 pages) OSAM on multiple expansion, speculation, and the importance of fundamentals. Book Recommendations Kyle Bass (CIO, Hayman […]
August 21, 2022

We’re in a Vibecession

“To be an investor is to live constantly at the intersection of story and uncertainty.” –  Daniel S. Loeb RESEARCH 3Fourteen Research – Dipping a Toe in the Water (13 pages) This piece follows up on what we shared from 3Fourteen Research […]
August 14, 2022

PREVIEW: Edward Chancellor’s new book “The Price of Time”

“Risk is what’s left over when you think you’ve thought of everything.” –  Morgan Housel RESEARCH Research Affiliates – Insights into the Inflation Print (10 minutes) Campbell Harvey digs into the July inflation print, provides some context to the numbers, and […]
August 7, 2022

Will The 60/40 Rebound?

“Never take financial advice from someone who has to work for a living.” –  Nassim Taleb RESEARCH Man Institute – The Road Ahead: Riddles in the Dark (7 pages) Man Group with a study on 60/40 portfolio returns and, among other observations, […]
July 31, 2022

Sanctions are Crippling Russia’s Economy

“Risk is what’s left over when you think you’ve thought of everything.” –  Morgan Housel RESEARCH Sonnenfeld et al. – Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy (118 pages) One of the first academic papers with an analysis of Russia’s […]
July 24, 2022

1,750x Investment

“There is nothing so unstable as a stabilized price level.” –  Jim Grant RESEARCH DoubleLine – Finding a Bottom in Equities (9 pages) DoubleLine’s Macro Asset Allocation Team covers drawdowns, bear markets, and some thoughts on potential paths forward for equities. AngelList […]
July 17, 2022

Exposing a $25b Fraud

“With every investment we become richer or wiser, never both.” – Bill Duhamel RESEARCH Robeco – Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes (38 pages) A look at performance and factors across inflation regimes going back to 1875. Source: Robeco KKR – […]
July 12, 2022

Global Valuation Updates!

For new subscribers, you may not be aware that we’ll share the global stock market valuations each quarter. You can view all prior quarterly updates here. Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates Median CAPE Ratio: 15 25% cheapest: 10 25% most expensive: 25 […]
July 10, 2022

The Mental Keys of Trading

“In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” – J.P. Morgan RESEARCH AQR – The Stock/Bond Correlation (18 pages) Historical perspective on the stock/bond correlation, and what the implications of a change in that relationship might mean. J.P. Morgan – […]
July 3, 2022

Wealth Destruction

“The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know, and which I’ve used every cycle when I have invested.” – Stanley Druckenmiller RESEARCH Totem Macro – Wealth Preservation (13 pages) Whitney Baker’s April research piece focuses on the big picture […]
June 26, 2022

Paul Volcker is A False God

“I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don’t want to bad mouth astrologers.” – Eugene Fama RESEARCH Clocktower Group – False Narratives Will Cost You Money (29 pages) Market narratives, inflation, the dollar rally, and why Paul Volcker is a […]
June 18, 2022

Your Portfolio Needs First Responders

“Conventional wisdom results in conventional returns.” – Mario Gabelli RESEARCH SSGA – PriceStats Analysis: From Bad to Worse (4 pages) State Street on inflation, the ECB’s dilemma, and the differential between fuel price and consumer food price inflation in emerging markets. […]
June 16, 2022

Newsletter Sampler: Popular Delusions by Calderwood Capital

NEWSLETTER SAMPLER Interested in learning about other great investing newsletters? Check out  Name: Popular Delusions by Calderwood Capital Frequency: Semi-monthly Audience: Professional investors & HNW individuals Model: Paid Author(s): Dylan Grice & Tim Bergin Topics: Macro and deep dives into specialist […]
June 12, 2022

ESG is Bullsh*t

“Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows.”  – Jim Rogers RESEARCH   LongTail Alpha – Trend-Following Research Series Part 2: Rising Rates and Trend-Following (12 pages) LongTail Alpha on trend-following across […]