July 7, 2017

A Fair Value CAPE Approach

Food for thought. Chart then download… —- —- Link to Download Fair Value CAPE Approach https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2983860 Website https://investor.vanguard.com/
July 6, 2017

Global Valuations

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! After a great year of performance in 2016, many cheap countries are continuing to outperform. Right to the stats! Median CAPE Ratio: 16.9 25% most expensive: 26 (U.S. in this bucket) 25% cheapest 10 Average of […]
July 5, 2017

From Niche to Necessity

Some nice charts in here…below one details just how different emerging market sector compositions can be… Chart then download… —- —- Link to Download From niche to necessity Website https://www.blackrock.com
June 30, 2017

Russian 10’s of 2007

Nice chartbook from Northern Trust Charts then download… —- —- Link to Download Mid Year Outlook Website https://www.northerntrust.com/
June 30, 2017


Some excellent charts from Robeco, including REIT yields and Europe vs US CAPE ratios…biggest spread since at least the 1980s… Charts then download… —- —- Link to Download Outlook Website https://www.robeco.com
June 28, 2017

Century of Trends

This was one of the first pieces we sent out to the Farm, now updated through 2016… Abstract, chart, then downloads… —- In this article, the authors study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1880, extending the […]
June 22, 2017

Shiller on CAPEs

The question is, are Siegel and Shiller drinking Red Stripe beers on Slide 2? Chart then downloads… —- —- Link to Download Risk and Relative Values In Diversified Portfolios Website http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/
June 21, 2017

Two Decades of Winning by Not Losing

Romick has one of my favorite commentaries…not just because he speaks to the market outlook, but also to his process and some specific ideas.  We’ve covered some before (search the archives), and today has a fun assymetric idea on bond […]
June 15, 2017

CAPE Ratio Time Series

All sorts of quant goodness on the new RAFI asset allocation tool redesign…model portfolios, expected returns, currencies, CAPE ratios….you name it!  Clear about an hour and go play around… Charts and link: —- —- Link to Download Press Release Overview […]
June 8, 2017


Nice quick analysis of the Global Market Portfolio returns since 1960.  Mirrors the results from our book…a basic global asset allocation gets you about 4-5% real returns over time.  Abstract then download… —- Using a newly constructed unique dataset, this […]
June 4, 2017

500 pages and $2.9 Trillion

500 pages from MS on ETFs. Chart and download: —- —- Link to Download ETF Report Website https://www.morganstanley.com
May 22, 2017


GMO on home bias, and valuations… Charts and download: —- —- Link to Download Home Bias Website https://www.gmo.com/
May 19, 2017

Big Picture: Near Term Good, Long Term Scary

I basically only use LinkedIn to check spam emails, but Ray Dalio posts come commentary there on occasion.  Below is a nice piece on expected returns.  I was trying to determine what the book was on his desk then realized […]
May 11, 2017

History of Farmland Investing

I have a biased personal interest in this as we have farmland in Kansas, but I found this interesting. I also included an older article by the author with an intro to farmland investing.  Lots of links in the footnotes… […]
May 9, 2017

Sell in May? Oh Geez Don’t Bring That Up Again…

Fun little piece from Horizon, and I also included a Leuthold chart dating the to 1920s on the sell in May system with small caps… Charts and download: —- —- Link to Download 1st Quarter 2017 Commentary Website Homepage