October 28, 2016

The “Lloyd Christmas” Lesson

Technically it says a 0.2% chance…. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Take the 5% Challenge  Website https://www.researchaffiliates.com/documents/Take%20the%20Five%20Percent%20Challenge.pdf
October 26, 2016

Two Centuries of Price-Return Momentum

Fun read on momentum from the FAJ. And for those interested, here is a fun crowd funding for a private ETF company! Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Two Centuries of Price-Return Momentum Website http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v72.n5.1
October 10, 2016


Fun quarterly piece from Crestmont on stock market cycles…they have a handful of other charts and publications on the website worth reviewing too. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles Website Financial Market and Economic […]
October 6, 2016

Real Drawdowns

Added local real drawdown %: Real Local Drawdown % Australia -7.89 Austria -52.43 Belgium -4.45 Brazil -43.78 Canada -6.15 Chile -39.5 China -35.51 Colombia -36.25 Czech Republic -45.18 Denmark -11.25 Egypt -62.63 Finland -53.49 France -10.96 Germany -13.36 Greece -97.43 […]
October 4, 2016

CAP Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Median CAPE Ratio: 25% most expensive: 23 (U.S. in this bucket) 25% cheapest 10 Average of Foreign Developed 17 Average of Foreign Emerging 14 We’ve mentioned this a lot in the past but bears repeating.  We […]
October 4, 2016

Closed End Funds

Semi annual piece from MS on closed end funds, if that’s your thing…. Chart then download: —- —- Link to articles: Closed End Fund Report Website: http://www.morganstanley.com/
October 1, 2016

Commercial Property and Timing Beta

Two very good recent pieces from Research Affiliates.  One on commercial real estate (I learned a lot in this one) and the second on….factor timing! Chart then download: —- —- Link to articles: Next Season’s Meager Harvest in Commercial Real […]
September 26, 2016

Mark and Seth

Looong market review from Mark Yusko with lots of quotes by Seth Klarman… Quote then download: —- “Sometimes buying early on the way down looks like being wrong, but it isn’t. You must buy on the way down. There is far more […]
September 22, 2016

Two Great Interviews

Read both of these, they’re great….Bernstein (Bill) and Tetlock. Quote then download: —- CR: Is it also why you emphasize saving, which is to avoid the worst-case scenario of running out of money? WB: Exactly. The other way of looking at Pascal’s […]
September 19, 2016

Returns by Decade

Long piece from DB…lots of great tables at the end with historical returns, etc. Wowza DB one of the more bearish shops! Chart then download: —- —- Link to PDF: Long Term returns Website: https://www.db.com/
September 16, 2016

Hedged Exposure

13F time with one of our favorite publications, Novus Research. Chart then download: —- —- Link to PDF: Novus 13F Update Website: https://www.novus.com/
September 9, 2016

(Not so) Pure Energy

I’ve never been quite comfortable with resource stocks as a pure substitute for commodities, but this piece from GMO makes a good argument. Chart then link. —- —- Link to article: An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Case […]
September 7, 2016


I was going to write a paper on the Coppock Curve a long time ago, maybe I’ll revisit. Ned Davis has some similar results on their site for the DJIA too. His quote, chart, then link. —- “After nearly two […]
August 27, 2016


Cliff and Rob debate their factor timing papers at the Morningstar conference. Full transcript below.  Plus, you can subscribe to the M* magazine for free – and you should, it’s very good. No quotes just link. Link to article: Meeting of the […]
August 23, 2016


I’ve received a handful of emails from subs wondering if they’ve missed any emails – nope!  I haven’t read much of interest lately, and I refuse to just blast out noise if there isn’t anything of value.  So, just wanted […]